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Behind Indonesia's stunning decision to part ways with Shin Tae-Yong

Despite enjoying a successful five-year spell in charge of Indonesia, Shin Tae-Yong was abruptly given the sack on Monday despite his contract still running through to 2027. Robertus Pudyanto/Getty Images

Given they are still in the hunt for what would be quite incredible qualification for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the fact that he has been the man responsible for their remarkable rise from the doldrums, Indonesia's decision to sack coach Shin Tae-Yong provided major headlines on Monday.

It would have been an even bigger bombshell had rumours not been steadily gathering steam on Sunday, with an evening announcement from PSSI -- Indonesian football's governing body -- that they would be holding a news conference the following noon all but providing the necessary confirmation.

With local media gathered at Menara Danareksa, a short 20-minute drive from the association's headquarters on the outskirts of the famed Gelora Bung Karno stadium, Shin's fate was sealed.

"We see the need for a leader who is better able to implement the strategies agreed upon by the players, and who has better communication," said PSSI chairman Erick Thohir, also a government minister who previously owned Serie A giants Inter Milan.

"Correspondence regarding the end of our relationship has been received [by Shin] and I would like to express my gratitude.

"We have also found a replacement, who will arrive on the 11th [of January]. A news conference will be held on the 12th."

Predictably, Indonesia fans reacted to the news with a mixture of sadness and bewilderment.

The comments section of the official Instagram post announcing Shin's departure was flooded with messages of gratitude, but some even suggested that Indonesian football was about to "return to the dark ages" and that Gelora Bung Karno would be empty for future matches.

Experienced Indonesian football journalist Alvino Hanafi revealed that the supporter base was immediately divided into a faction who will be accepting of a new coach, and those who are ardently in support of Shin.

"It is difficult to make sense of this decision, particularly as Shin Tae-Yong was steering the team towards progress when he was terminated," Hanafi told ESPN.

"Yet, the federation has full authority over such matters. This gamble can only be evaluated in the future.

"However, firing Shin Tae-Yong will definitely face resistance from football fans."

Just exactly how did it get to this?

Where were Indonesia when Shin took over?

Shin agreed to take charge of Indonesia in December 2019.

It signified a real coup given his credentials, having led his native South Korea at the previous year's World Cup -- where he even masterminded a stunning 2-0 victory over Germany that ended the then-champions' title defence.

That was certainly the sentiment in his homeland.

"Shin Tae-Yong was well known in South Korea, having led the national team at the 2018 World Cup in Russia," said Kim Hee-Ung, a reporter with Ilgan Sports -- South Korea's first sports publication founded in 1969.

"Despite the relatively low-profile challenge in Indonesia, South Korean fans were eager to hear about the new history he was making. Unsurprisingly, there was a lot of support for Shin, with the dominant view being that he was doing the country [Indonesia] a favour."

Before Shin's arrival, no predecessor had lasted more than two full years in the job since 2010, highlighting the instability and strife plaguing Indonesian football -- which also included FIFA suspensions for a breakaway domestic league and government interference in the sport.

When Shin agreed to take a huge leap of faith in a managerial career that already had stored a decent amount of credit, Indonesia were 173rd in the FIFA world rankings. They are now 127th.

Before Shin's arrival, Indonesia had also failed to make it out of the group stage of the ASEAN Championship in three of the previous four editions. In his first major assignment in the COVID-delayed 2020 edition of Southeast Asia's premier international tournament, he led them all the way to the final.

What did Indonesia achieve under Shin?

Other than a steady rise up the world rankings, Indonesia have quite simply reclaimed their place as one of the region's dominant forces, as well as punched above their weight on the continental stage, under Shin.

Reaching the third round of the ongoing third round of Asian qualifiers for the World Cup -- the only Southeast Asian team to do so -- was already a feat in itself. Since then, they have pulled off impressive draws against Saudi Arabia and Australia before recording an almighty victory over the former last time out.

The result means they are currently third in Group C and in with a legitimate chance of advancing to the next stage at the very least, even if they miss out on the top two automatic qualifying berths, and keep alive their dream of a first World Cup since 1938 when they were still the Dutch East Indies.

Indonesia have also featured at the Olympics before in 1956. Last year, they came so close to returning to that stage -- only losing out to Guinea in an intercontinental playoff after exceeding expectations to finish fourth at the AFC U-23 Asian Cup ahead of the likes of South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Australia and Qatar.

There was also a first AFC Asian Cup appearance in 17 years at the start of 2024, where Indonesia did well to reach the round of 16.

On the regional front, while ASEAN Championship success continued to elude the Indonesians, Shin did at least guide them to the last four in both 2021 and 2022, before his final outing at the recently-concluded 2024 edition saw them bow out in the group stage with a youthful and experimental squad missing a whole host of senior stars.

For many keen observers, Shin getting the sack had been an unthinkable prospect.

Kim, who had only interviewed Shin last September about looking ahead to qualifying for the World Cup, admitted he was in "disbelief" upon learning about the news.

"In Korea, the reaction is mostly that it is very absurd," he shared. "Korean fans feel that this is betrayal -- Shin Tae-Yong has done so much [for Indonesia] so why are they suddenly firing him?

"I find the decision baffling."

According to Kim, who spoke to one of Shin's sons earlier on Monday, their family only learned of his dismissal through the news and were "understandably outraged" as they had been staunch supporters of Indonesia given the familial connection.

Was there a breaking point?

Thohir's choice of words in announcing Shin's dismissal was peculiar.

"Strategies agreed upon by the players" suggests that members of the squad had a significant influence in the team's playing style and philosophy, which is usually the prerogative of the coach.

It must be noted that while the early stages of Shin's reign saw him bring through a whole host of talented local youngsters, Indonesia's continued rise in more recent times had coincided with an influx of European-born heritage imports -- who may have learnt their craft with different man-management styles or tactical approaches.

Perhaps, while he had more pliable minds to work with initially, Shin was now having to work with more-credentialled players more set in their ways.

ESPN also understands that the esteem which Indonesian fans held for Shin -- which bordered on reverence -- was a concern in some quarters of the PSSI, as it afforded the South Korean a major bargaining chip whenever negotiations for a new deal came around.

Indeed, Hanafi revealed that there had been underlying friction.

"Erick Thohir said that problems with Shin Tae-Yong started during the [World Cup qualifier] against China [in October]. Maybe even earlier," he added.

"This shows the issue has been around for a while. Like a couple who can't work together anymore, a big decision had to be made for the good of their 'children' -- in this case, the national team."

Ultimately, Shin still resorted to a more conservative, counterattacking approach especially in tougher tests.

If Indonesia are making the change purely because they feel they have outgrown Shin, and are looking to develop an expansive style of football even when coming up against more-illustrious opposition, then there could be validity to this decision -- especially if more foreign-groomed players that will only enhance their overall quality are introduced.

Nonetheless, the tactical discipline and self belief that Shin drilled into his charges are attributes that also cannot be overlooked.

The move also came a huge surprise in South Korea given his achievement had actually led to some calling for a second stint in charge of the Taegeuk Warriors.

"It was known in Korea that Indonesia had treated Shin Tae-Yong very well," revealed Kim. "I don't think Korean fans had a bad perception of Indonesia before the sacking. On the contrary, Korean fans supported Indonesia.

"There were even some who wanted Shin Tae-Yong to become the head coach of the Korean national team because of his good performance in Indonesia. Even before the appointment of [current coach] Hong Myung-Bo, Shin Tae-Yong's name was being talked about among fans."

How do Indonesia move forward?

Another curious aspect of Monday's announcement was that PSSI felt a need to state that Shin's successor will be "accompanied by a high-quality assistant coach".

Although it could prove to be otherwise, it immediately gives the impression that the new man in charge could be a high-profile but inexperienced selection.

Regardless, Indonesia's new coach will face a massive in task in maintaining the momentum that they have gathered under Shin.

Dropping out of contention for World Cup qualification would be an immediate disaster, and it does not help that their next games in March include a tough away trip to Australia.

"If the successor to Shin Tae-Yong delivers better results and greter achievements, those opposing the federation's choice today might forget this event," Hanafi explained.

"If, however, the successor falls short and the team fails to perform better, the federation may find itself under fire for what could be remembered as one of the biggest mistakes in PSSI history."

Kim acknowledged speculation that PSSI are leaning towards a Dutch coach given the amount of Netherlands-born imports they currently boast. He is also of the opinion that this could be a decision Indonesian football ends up regretting, especially given "the chemistry between Shin and the players" and "what has been achieved so far".

As regional rivals Vietnam have shown, following in the footsteps of someone so adored by a football-mad nation can be a poisoned chalice.

Even though he also had detractors over his style of play, Park Hang-Seo oversaw Vietnam's most-successful era until he left the job at the start of last year. His replacement was a savvy choice on paper -- the vastly-experienced Philippe Troussier -- but he only managed to last just over a year.

Indonesia are on the verge of something special.

Given this is not a well-received decision, it will really have to be a case of taking one step back to go two forward, rather than the other way around.