The Big Picture
India need nothing less than a win. It's as simple as that. If they are to have their destiny of qualifying for the third round of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers in their own hands, then nothing less than three points against Afghanistan at the Indira Gandhi Athletic Stadium in Guwahati on Tuesday will suffice. Coach Igor Stimac was laughing when he said he would quit if India failed to reach the third round but it's possible that, in that scenario, the decision will not be his.
India had a pretty miserable night in the altitude of Abha, Saudi Arabia last week in a 0-0 draw, when Igor Stimac's side looked disjointed for large spells, and never had even consistent period of putting pressure on a well-drilled Afghanistan side.
They still had the chances to win that game, though, primarily through the heads of Manvir Singh and Subhasish Bose. But, they also did give up chances to the Afghans, with Ashley Westwood's side even hitting the woodwork through Rahmat Akbari.
India vs Afghanistan Live FIFA World Cup Qualifier: Scores, Updates, Commentary, News
However, despite what was objectively not a good result for India, they remain in control of their destiny, being a point ahead of Kuwait at the halfway point in this group. They have two home games to come, and four points from those two games is likely to be enough to take India through to the next round, even without the away game against Qatar mattering.
Even though India are in control of their destiny, what they're not in control of is their ability to score goals. It's now 532 minutes since Manvir Singh's goal gave them the perfect start to this campaign in Kuwait City. Since then, even though India have played the two-time defending Asian champions Qatar and other top Asian sides like Australia and Uzbekistan, their bluntness in front of goal has developed into a major concern.
What they said:
Sunil Chhetri, captain - India:
"As the game progressed, we became more desperate. When you start a game dominating and you miss chances, you have the idea that you're chasing the game because you want to win. I think no matter who you play against, if the chances come, send them."
Igor Stimac, coach - India:
"If I don't take India to the third round I will leave, with my pride, with my honour on everything that was done here in the five years of work. I will leave my position to someone else"
"We were disappointed with the end result in the first game against Afghanistan. We need to make things right here. I hope there will be a good crowd here in Assam tomorrow.. We remember how well we played against Oman here the last time we were here, but that was a long time ago. We are positive and looking forward to tomorrow's game where we'll try to do our best. A draw is the same as a loss for us. We need to make things easier for the June game against Kuwait."
Ashley Westwood, coach - Afghanistan:
"Ten years ago when I came here, compared to that, (Indian) football has improved significantly. Every player is physically fit, everyone is conditioned correctly, they last 90 minutes (and) you don't see Indian players getting cramps."
Form Guide
(Most recent first)
India: DLLLL
The four straight losses against Qatar and in the Asian Cup were maybe expected, but the draw last week wasn't. India have now gone five full 90-minute games without a win, and nobody knows better than Stimac that it needs changing.
Afghanistan: DLLWW
Before the 0-0 draw last week, Afghanistan had conceded 12 goals in their previous two games. They come to Guwahati as underdogs, but their defensive organisation and discipline made them really tough to break down in Abha, so Westwood will want a repeat of last week's showing.
Head-to-Head
Total games played: 12
India wins: 7
Afghanistan wins: 1
Draws: 4
The last time Afghanistan came to Indian shores, they were beaten 2-1 thanks to a last-ditch Sahal Abdul Samad goal, which followed goals from Sunil Chhetri and Zohib Islam Amiri in the last ten minutes. Their only win against India came eight years ago, but one can be certain Westwood will come to Guwahati with the intention of spoiling an anticipated Indian party.
The Concerns
For India
Where are the goals coming from? Stimac learned the hard way on Thursday night that just filling your team with attacking players doesn't do much to improve the attacking output. India threatened from set-pieces, but weren't convincing enough from open play to win enough of those set-pieces.
They had no link between the four attackers and the rest of the team, and that resulted in large spaces in between the lines for Afghanistan to exploit in transition as well.
For Afghanistan
Well, Westwood's team has shown that the player boycott that has overshadowed their preparations hasn't really hampered them that much on the pitch.
However, much like India, their inability to string together cohesive attacking moves even when afforded tons of space by India's lack of tactical discipline will be an area to work on ahead of this one.
The Key Players
For India
Sunil Chhetri will still be the one that India turn to for being clinical in front of goal. After goals in his 25th, 50th, 75th, 100th, and 125th caps for India, the skipper will be looking to mark his 150th cap for the country with a goal as well. However, the keys for Chhetri to be able to score are likely to rest at the feet of Brandon Fernandes.
The FC Goa skipper is clearly the most technically proficient player in this Indian lineup. All of that will be needed in this game. Brandon's ability to pick passes through the eye of a needle over either short or long range will be very crucial for India in their quest for the initiative. To make the most of Brandon's ability, allowing the likes of Lallianzuala Chhangte and Mahesh Singh to make runs in behind the Afghan defence will also be critical.
For Afghanistan
The Afghan front two of Jaber Sharza and Omid Popalzai always kept the Indian centre-backs Anwar Ali and Rahul Bheke on their toes throughout the game last week. Sharza could've even got himself on the scoresheet if not for a critical last-ditch intervention from Bheke.
They've shown themselves to be valuable outlets in transition, and took advantage of a lot of Indian sloppiness last week. If Afghanistan are to eke out a famous result in this one, that partnership between these two up top will likely be an important factor.
The Predicted XIs
India XI (4-2-3-1): Gurpreet Singh Sandhu (GK); Nikhil Poojary, Rahul Bheke, Anwar Ali, Subhasish Bose; Suresh Singh, Lalengmawia Ralte; Lallianzuala Chhangte, Brandon Fernandes, Mahesh Singh; Sunil Chhetri
India looked a better side with Brandon Fernandes on the field on Thursday night, so youngster Vikram Partap Singh could make way for him. Manvir Singh had a torrid night in front of goal, so he could be replaced by Mahesh Singh, with quick transitions and movements likely to be the way for India to break down the Afghan defence.
Afghanistan (3-5-2): Ovayz Azizi (GK); Mahboob Hanifi, Zohib Islam Amiri, Habibullah Askar; Mosawer Ahadi, Rahmat Akbari, Sharif Mukhammad, Zelfi Nazary, Taufee Skandari; Omid Popalzai, Jabar Sharza
Westwood doesn't have much reason to change system or personnel from a lineup that worked so well at nullifying India and even giving themselves a consistent attacking threat. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Afghanistan going in with an unchanged lineup.