Even through 20 of 38 games, the Premier League table doesn't predict the future all that well.
At this point last year, Arsenal were five points clear of second-place Manchester City. Liverpool were tied with Brentford in seventh. Aston Villa were in 11th, a point back of Chelsea. Leeds United were five points clear of the relegation places, which were occupied by Southampton, West Ham and Everton -- all tied on 15 points.
Over the remaining 18 matches, Manchester City won nine more points than the second-best pair of teams, one of which was Liverpool. Arsenal (fourth most) won only one more point than Aston Villa (fifth most). Chelsea won more points than only two other teams -- total -- one of which was Leeds United. Meanwhile, Everton finished with the 14th-most points over the home stretch, and West Ham gathered the 10th-best haul from the last few months of matches.
On average, a team's rank after 20 games shifted by 3.5 spots when compared to its rank over the final 18 games last season. In fact, Brentford were the only team to rank in the exact same spot over the first 20 games and the final 18.
Of course, each team's place in the final table was significantly stickier -- the points accrued in those first 20 matches account for more than half of the final point total. But when you look at this season's current table, there's still a good deal of unpredictability between how each team has played so far, and how they're going to play from here on out.
Today, we're going to try a slightly different prediction exercise. We're going to rank all 20 Premier League teams based on how many points we think they're going to win from now until the end of the season. So, if the table were erased and we played only the games left on the schedule, how would things look come the end of May?
Our Premier League prediction methodology
When it comes to making better predictions, the wisdom of the crowds is maybe the most powerful tool. Everyone has their own biases, and everyone also probably has their own useful bits of insight, too. So when you aggregate all of those opinions or predictions together, you're much more likely to be closer to the truth than any one individual prediction is.