A run of good results builds up the confidence that enables teams to play their way through difficulties. A sequence of bad results piles pressure on a side and leads to a sense of desperation. And this helps explain why Argentina came away from Uruguay on Friday night with a 1-0 win.
Unbeaten in almost two and half years, Argentina are on the verge of following Brazil and booking their place early in next year's World Cup. And after two crushing defeats last month, Uruguay suffered a third consecutive reverse and drop to sixth place, outside the qualification slots, for the first time since losing away to Ecuador in the second round of the campaign.
Argentina will take extra heart from a triumph achieved without Lionel Messi, who, not fully fit, only appeared for the final 15 minutes. He was replaced by Paulo Dybala, who was quick to make an impression. After just six minutes he caught Uruguay left-back Joaquin Piquerez and laid back to Angel Di Maria, who curled a magnificent shot inside the far top corner.
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But more than an hour would pass until Argentina managed another shot on target. And without goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez they would have been a goal down before Di Maria struck. Cristian Romero got underneath a long throw from Uruguay right-back Martin Caceres, sending his header up into the air. In the melee the ball fell to Nahitan Nandez, one-on-one with the keeper. Martinez spread himself to make the vital save. Goals, of course, change matches and the introduction of keeper Martinez in June has spread a sense of security through the side that Argentina had been missing for years.
The defence was put to the test in Montevideo. After that bright start, Dybala faded. Argentina struggled to find their usual passing fluency. Midfield general Rodrigo De Paul was often in trouble. He usually plays Argentina's most important ball forward, but the automatic connection with Messi had been interrupted. De Paul looked for his target, could not find it and in the delay Uruguay snapped into him and stole possession.
This was a very different Uruguay side from the one which meekly went down to a 3-0 defeat in Buenos Aires last month. Then, coach Oscar Washington Tabarez unwisely went with a back three, and ended up sitting too deep and not putting enough pressure on the Argentina midfield. Now, higher up the field, Uruguay were much more aggressive and pro-active. It was significant that Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni changed his front three early. Dybala was replaced at half-time, and Di Maria and centre-forward Lautaro Martinez followed nine minutes after the restart. Scaloni was shuffling his pack, hoping that his substitutes would find it easier to find space and relieve the pressure on a defensive unit that was frequently operating at the limit.
Giovani Lo Celso played a loose pass out, and Luis Suarez shot into the side netting. De Paul was caught in possession, and Rodrigo Bentancur slid forward for Saurez and Nandez to exchange passes, before Suarez hit the post and blazed the rebound wide. Piquerez caught De Paul once more, and Suarez set up Bentancur for a shot from the edge of the area that was well saved.
Uruguay ran through their attacking options. Perhaps the surprise was that Tabarez did not turn to the languid but classy Gaston Pereira, who came off the bench to set up and score the only goal against Ecuador in September and has hardly been seen since. Instead, young striker Agustin Alvarez Martinez was sent on, and made a mess of the clearest chance of the game. Piquerez sent in a cross from deep on the left, and after making space for a free header at the far post, Alvarez got underneath the ball and sent it too high. He nearly made amends just afterwards when, set up by Suarez, his shot squirmed through Martinez -- but the keeper just recovered in time to stop the ball from crossing the line. And Alvarez had one more chance after a quickly taken throw-in found Suarez on the left touchline. He chipped back into the area and Alvarez failed to get clean contact, but the ball nearly fell for substitute midfielder Mauro Arambarri as he rushed in towards the far post.
On another day Uruguay would have scored the goal their dynamism and determination deserved. And had they not lost last month 3-0 to Argentina and 4-1 to Brazil then maybe they would have had the calm needed to take some of their chances.
But with the players aware that the job of coach Tabarez is on the line, they were too frantic. Argentina, unbeaten since the semifinals of the 2019 Copa America and boosted by the defensive emergence of Martinez and Romero, dug in deep with the belief that things were going to go their way. They have now hit the mark of 28 points, which in every previous campaign has been good enough to make it though to the World Cup.