Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Thursday

Todd ZolaApr 10, 2025, 10:57 AM
Close
Follow on X

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart | Start a new league

STARTING PITCHERS FOR THURSDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
11.4	Spencer Schwellenbach	R	PHI	92.6%	56%	5.8	2.6	5.7
9.4	Zack Littell	R	LAA	10.2%	54%	5.3	2.4	4.6
9.1	Jesus Luzardo	L	@ATL	77.9%	44%	5.5	3.1	6.1
8.9	Jose Soriano	R	@TB	24.2%	46%	5.1	2.2	4.9
8.7	Gavin Williams	R	CWS	22.9%	56%	4.9	2.3	5.2
8.5	Bailey Ober	R	@KC	80.5%	52%	5.3	2.9	5.2
8.2	Chris Bassitt	R	@BOS	62.2%	53%	5.8	3.4	5.8
7.2	Michael Wacha	R	MIN	15.9%	48%	5.4	3.1	4.9
6.4	Jonathan Cannon	R	@CLE	1.0%	44%	5.1	2.9	4.3
3.6	Walker Buehler	R	TOR	27.2%	47%	4.8	3.6	4.0
0.8	Quinn Priester	R	@COL	0.7%	54%	5.1	5.4	4.9
0.4	Ryan Feltner	R	MIL	1.5%	46%	4.8	5.0	4.5

Pitchers to stream on Thursday

This hasn't been Cleveland Guardians' RHP Gavin Williams breakthrough season yet as teased by his spring performances, featuring 21 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings. Facing the Chicago White Sox at home could be the elixir, though the forecast calls for rain. The temperatures will be in the 40s, making for uncomfortable hitting conditions.
Los Angeles Angels RHP Jose Soriano is racking up strikeouts with 14 over his first 12 1/3 innings. On Thursday, he'll face a Tampa Bay Rays lineup that isn't whiffing much, but they also aren't scoring as they sport 12th lowest average runs per game in MLB.
Rays' RHP Zack Littell is ahead of both Williams and Soriano on Thursday's Starting Pitcher Rankings. The elegance of formulaic rankings is they aren't biased by small samples. In this case, the Angels offense has been more potent than the Rays so far, as they're averaging the ninth-most runs in the league. Be it objective or subjective analysis, neither side has enough information this early in the season to be completely confident in their analysis. Choosing between Littell and Soriano comes down to the fantasy manager expecting the Rays offense to get on track or the Angels lineup to keep producing at an elevated level.

Pitchers to avoid on Thursday

Toronto Blue Jays' RHP Chris Bassitt barely qualifies with a rostership just a couple ticks over the 50% mark used to identify candidates to avoid. The veteran faces the Boston Red Sox on the road. While Fenway Park doesn't have the same reputation as Coors Field for increasing scoring, the league's oldest park ranks second for embellishing runs.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Thursday

Fading Coors Field can often be a strategic approach. However, on a six-game slate, with both starting pitchers at the bottom of the rankings, some exposure to Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers bats is inevitable. Rockies OF Brenton Doyle is a no-brainer, with SS Ezequiel Tovar and C Hunter Goodman also strong plays. On the other side, Brewers 2B Brice Turang is automatic, joined by 1B Rhys Hoskins and OF Garrett Mitchell as solid options.
Guardians batters, especially the left-handed contingent, are in a good spot facing White Sox RHP Jonathan Cannon. The chief candidates are 1B Carlos Santana, DH Kyle Manzardo, OF Nolan Jones and C Bo Naylor.

Hitters to avoid on Thursday

Thursday's two top starters square off with LHP Spencer Schwellenbach and the Atlanta Braves hosting LHP Jesus Luzardo and the Philadelphia Phillies. The lefty swingers on both sides will be challenged, though suggesting reserving the likes of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Michael Harris II and Matt Olson feels myopic. However, fading them in DFS, especially in cash games, makes sense. Even on an abbreviated slate, there is a healthy inventory of favorable hitting matchups.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end, you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Kyle Isbel | OVER 0.5 HR (+1200)
Projection: 9% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.15 EV
One reason to bet this: The Minnesota Twins have just one same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Isbel can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

Kyren Paris | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.56 EV
One reason to bet this: Steinbrenner Field has the lowest average fence height among all MLB parks.

Carlos Correa | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.74 EV
One reason to bet this: This game is predicted to have the third-most favorable conditions for hitting of all the games scheduled today.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Spencer Schwellenbach | UNDER 5.5 K (+115)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.32 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.2 mph in this contest, the most favorable of the day for hitters.

Chris Bassitt | UNDER 5.5 K (+105)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.53 EV
One reason to bet this: It is likely that we will see a "hitter's umpire" (Manny Gonzalez) behind the plate in this game.

Bailey Ober | OVER 4.5 K (-105)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.63 EV
One reason to bet this: Given that flyball pitchers hold a substantial advantage over flyball bats, Ober and his 42.7% underlying FB% (per my projections) finds himself in a strong spot in this outing, squaring off against three opposing FB bats.

Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Brewers @ Rockies | NRFI (+115)
Projection: 48% chance of NO RUN with a $2.75 EV

Angels @ Rays | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $0.87 EV