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Pitchers to stream on Wednesday
Tampa Bay Rays RHP Ryan Pepiot is slated for his third start, a home affair against the Los Angeles Angels. Pepiot has been effective with 11 strikeouts over his first 11 innings, though he's walked four while yielding 11 hits. The walks are in line with his career numbers, while the hits are due to an elevated .313 BABIP. Pepiot should keep the strong start to the season rolling against an offense with a slightly below-average wOBA and a strikeout rate a tick above average.
New York Mets RHP Tylor Megill is also enjoying a solid opening to the season with a pair of victories while fanning 10 in 10 1/3 frames. Next up is a home date with the Miami Marlins, who have the ninth-lowest wOBA and eighth-highest strikeout rate into Citi Field.
Cleveland Guardians LHP Logan Allen earned a spot in the rotation with an impressive camp, but he was unable to carry that momentum into the regular season. The lefty issued five free passes while only fanning one in 5 1/3 frames in his opener on the road against the San Diego Padres. Allen has a favorable matchup on Wednesday against the Chicago White Sox at what will be a chilly Progressive Field. The White Sox aren't striking out much, but their lineup sports the seventh-lowest wOBA in the league.
Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday
Angels LHP Yusei Kikuchi was credited with quality starts in his first two outings for the Angels, but he allowed six runs (three earned) in both, the last of which featured five bases on balls. The Rays haven't taken full advantage of the friendly dimensions of George Steinbrenner Field, but they're still dangerous. Being a southpaw will help Kikuchi with the short porch in right field, but he's still risky for this road affair.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
New York Mets pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: A | Park: A | Umpire: D | Temperature: A+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 2.82 ERA in this matchup.
New York Yankees pitchers vs. Tigers hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: A+ | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.23 ERA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: A+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.23 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Brewers hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: B+ | Wind: A | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.23 ERA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: B+ | Wind: A | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.03 ERA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.82 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Wednesday
Around 81 times a year, this section should probably be "Hitters to stream outside of Coors Field." On Wednesday, the Atlanta Braves should be productive when they face Philadelphia Phillies RHP Taijuan Walker in hitter-friendly Truist Park. Sean Murphy, Bryan De La Cruz and Jarred Kelenic are the targets available in most ESPN leagues.
The Athletics sport the third-highest home run rate through the first week-plus of the season, with 1B Tyler Soderstrom tied with Aaron Judge for the MLB lead in homers with six through Monday's action. Soderstrom enjoys the platoon edge on San Diego Padres RHP Randy Vasquez in Sutter Health Park, a yard expected to be generous to the long ball this season. Vasquez has yet to yield a homer in 10 2/3 innings, but he's in jeopardy of surrendering his first to Soderstrom, SS Jacob Wilson or OF JJ Bleday.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Framing: D | Temperature: D | Wind: F | Home
The average hitter would post a .354 wOBA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: D | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Framing: A | Temperature: D | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .352 wOBA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves RHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .336 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
New York Yankees RHB vs. Tigers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: F | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .265 wOBA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays RHB vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: A | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: F | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .271 wOBA in this matchup.
Miami Marlins RHB vs. Mets pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: B | Park: F | Umpire: A | Framing: B | Temperature: F | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .272 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Carlos Correa | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.00 EV
One reason to bet this: When it comes to his home runs, Correa has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His 20.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit lower than my projections' version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 23.7.
Brent Rooker | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 24% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.90 EV
One reason to bet this: Rooker's 16.9 Barrel% (an advanced metric to assess power) grades out in the 98th percentile since the start of last season.
Triston Casas | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.09 EV
One reason to bet this: Casas' 13.5 Barrel% ranks in the 90th percentile since the start of last season.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Justin Verlander | OVER 4.5 K (-130)
Projection: 73% chance of this bet hitting, with a $37.56 EV
One reason to bet this: Verlander's 2400.7-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 77th percentile out of all SPs.
Jake Irvin | UNDER 4.5 K (-100)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.12 EV
One reason to bet this: In his last start, Irvin didn't have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out and was only able to post two Ks.
Seth Lugo | OVER 4.5 K (-135)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.74 EV
One reason to bet this: With six hitters of the same handedness in the opposing team's projected lineup, Lugo figures to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Rangers @ Cubs | NRFI (-120)
Projection: 57% chance of NO RUN with a $4.63 EV
Phillies @ Braves | YRFI (-110)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $3.02 EV
Yankees @ Tigers | NRFI (-150)
Projection: 61% chance of NO RUN with a $2.83 EV