Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Tuesday

ESPN Fantasy

Apr 8, 2025, 11:30 AM

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR TUESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.1	Zack Wheeler	R	@ATL	99.8%	EVEN	6.5	59%	6.2	2.5	6.7
14.0	Luis Castillo	R	HOU	98.0%	-105	6.5	54%	6.2	2.2	6.3
12.4	Paul Skenes	R	STL	99.8%	-135	6.5	48%	5.6	2.0	6.0
12.3	Framber Valdez	L	@SEA	98.1%	-115	6.5	46%	5.9	2.3	6.6
11.8	Tarik Skubal	L	NYY	99.8%	-175	7.5	61%	5.6	2.3	5.7
11.8	Dylan Cease	R	@ATH	99.5%	-150	8.5	56%	5.7	2.5	6.6
11.0	Chris Sale	L	PHI	98.9%	-120	6.5	41%	5.6	2.6	6.4
11.0	Sonny Gray	R	@PIT	94.2%	+115	6.5	52%	5.7	2.5	5.9
10.9	Landen Roupp	R	CIN	5.4%	-130	7.5	55%	5.1	1.7	5.1
10.8	Clay Holmes	R	MIA	32.0%	-285	7.5	59%	5.5	2.2	5.4
10.4	Shane Baz	R	LAA	51.4%	-175	7.5	61%	5.5	2.2	5.1
10.3	Cole Ragans	L	MIN	98.6%	-130	7.5	49%	5.6	2.7	6.2
10.0	Pablo Lopez	R	@KC	97.5%	+110	7.5	51%	5.9	3.1	5.8
9.8	Connor Gillispie	R	@NYM	1.3%	+230	7.5	41%	5.0	1.9	5.1
9.5	Jameson Taillon	R	TEX	6.1%	-160	7.5	55%	5.6	2.7	4.9
9.4	Garrett Crochet	L	TOR	99.6%	-200	7.5	52%	5.1	2.6	6.1
9.4	Shane Smith	R	@CLE	2.0%	+170	7.5	49%	5.0	2.1	4.9
9.3	Merrill Kelly	R	BAL	15.0%	-120	9.5	50%	5.6	2.9	5.6
8.7	Nick Lodolo	L	@SF	35.2%	+110	7.5	45%	5.3	2.6	5.2
8.3	Charlie Morton	R	@ARI	8.4%	EVEN	9.5	50%	5.4	2.9	5.7
7.9	Ben Lively	R	CWS	3.2%	-205	7.5	51%	5.1	2.7	4.7
7.4	Jeffrey Springs	L	SD	20.7%	+125	8.5	44%	4.7	2.3	4.5
7.1	Justin Wrobleski	L	@WSH	1.2%	-185	9.5	55%	4.9	2.6	4.5
6.8	Kyle Hendricks	R	@TB	1.9%	+145	7.5	39%	5.3	2.8	4.0
6.6	Brad Lord	R	LAD	0.0%	+155	9.5	45%	5.0	3.0	4.8
6.6	Patrick Corbin	L	@CHC	0.6%	+135	7.5	45%	5.5	3.2	4.5
6.0	Easton Lucas	L	@BOS	2.8%	+165	7.5	48%	4.2	2.3	4.2
5.6	Freddy Peralta	R	@COL	93.0%	-160	9.5	55%	5.2	4.7	6.7
4.5	Carlos Carrasco	R	@DET	1.2%	+145	7.5	39%	4.7	3.2	4.2
0.3	Kyle Freeland	L	MIL	10.3%	+135	9.5	45%	5.0	5.3	4.3

Pitchers to stream on Tuesday

RHP Landen Roupp beat out RHP Hayden Birdsong for the final spot in the San Francisco Giants rotation. Roupp needs to pitch well to keep his spot, especially with Birdsong throwing four scoreless frames with four strikeouts as a reliever. Roupp's first start was a mixed bag as he fanned eight, but also walked four, so he recorded only four innings on the road against the Houston Astros. Tuesday is a home affair with the Cincinnati Reds in pitcher friendly Oracle Park. The Reds' 6.2% walk rate is the lowest in MLB, which should help Roupp pitch deeper into the game.
Until RHP Shane Baz's rostership creeps over 50%, he's going to qualify as a streamer in almost every start. He fanned 10 while walking no one in six scoreless frames against the Pittsburgh Pirates in his 2025 debut. Facing the Los Angeles Angels in George Steinbrenner Field will be a challenge, but Baz lines up for another solid outing.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

New York Mets pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
The average pitcher would post a 2.82 ERA in this matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.54 ERA in this matchup.

Cleveland Guardians pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.62 ERA in this matchup.

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Brewers hitters
The average pitcher would post a 5.38 ERA in this matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.96 ERA in this matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.86 ERA in this matchup.

Hitters to stream on Tuesday

Aside from the obvious Coors Field affair with the Colorado Rockies hosting the Milwaukee Brewers, Wrigley Field is another appealing place to add offense with the Chicago Cubs facing Texas Rangers LHP Patrick Corbin. The southpaw was recalled from Triple-A Round Rock to fill in for RHP Jack Leiter who is on the IL with blister issues. Corbin has been one of the league's most durable starters, missing just a handful of starts since 2016. However, since 2020, his ERA is 5.62 with a 1.53 WHIP. Right-handers Dansby Swanson, Matt Shaw and Justin Turner line up for a productive effort.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Jordan Westburg | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.48 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts this game to have the most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. | OVER 0.5 HR (+1200)
Projection: 8% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.20 EV
One reason to bet this: Among all MLB parks, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.

Leody Taveras | OVER 0.5 HR (+1200)
Projection: 8% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.55 EV
One reason to bet this: Taveras has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and is a great match for Wrigley Field, considering he'll be aiming in the direction of baseball's sixth-shallowest LF fences today.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Kyle Freeland | UNDER 3.5 K (+130)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.29 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 1 venue in MLB for suppressing strikeouts, per my projections, is Coors Field.

Clay Holmes | OVER 5.5 K (-100)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.00 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 3 ballpark in the game for boosting strikeouts, according to my projections, is Citi Field.

Chris Sale | OVER 6.5 K (-165)
Projection: 73% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.50 EV
One reason to bet this: In his last start, Sale was on a roll and compiled seven strikeouts.

Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Cardinals @ Pirates | NRFI (-160)
Projection: 62% chance of NO RUN with a $0.47 EV

Astros @ Mariners | NRFI (-140)
Projection: 59% chance of NO RUN with a $1.62 EV