Victor Osimhen forced an own goal from Opa Sanganté after 36 minutes and that was enough for Nigeria to claim a less than convincing 1-0 win over Guinea Bissau on Monday and confirm their place in the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations round of 16.
It was hardly a vintage performance from the Super Eagles, especially not in the first half when they were given the run around by a second string Guinea Bissau selection.
And both Osimhen and substitute Zaidu Sanusi had goals disallowed, one for hand ball and the other for a marginal offside call, but it was enough to get them through to the next round. It was not enough however, to claim top spot following Equatorial Guinea's annihilation of hosts Ivory Coast in the other game.
Could the strikers please show themselves?
The attack was supposed to be Nigeria's strongest asset going into the tournament. Victor Osimhen, Victor Boniface, Ademola Lookman, Kelechi Iheanacho, Terem Moffi, Paul Onuachu, Samuel Chukwueze were either proven goalscorers, or assist makers.
Injury knocked off Boniface then Sadiq, but in Moffi and Onuachu they still had replacements capable of doing harm to any number of defenses.
That has not proven to be the case. Their tally stands at three goals and only one of those have come in open play. The other was a penalty kick, scored by a defender.
It is not for want of trying. On Monday, the team created chance after chance and racked up 11 shots, but only one of those was on target. It was the same against Côte d'Ivoire. And against Equatorial Guinea, they had 19 shots with seven on target and scored once. That is a shocking 20 percent of shots taken that end up on target and an even more abysmal return of 1 goal from open play from 41 shots.
Sure, Osimhen had two goals, correctly, disallowed on Monday (one hand ball and one offside). But the decision-making by the forwards has been well below par, and the defenders and goalkeeper are really to thank for making it out of the group stage.
Defenders, assemble!
Goalkeeper and defence were widely acknowledged as the soft underbelly for the Super Eagles prior to the tournament. Not only had Jose Peseiro spent most of his time since he was hired rotating defenders, in 16 matches, they had only managed to keep a grand total of three clean sheets.
Two of those were against São Tomé e Principe, against whom they amassed a combined total of 16 goals against over two legs. The other was their 1-0 win over Guinea Bissau after losing the first leg by the same margin.
Former goalkeeper and captain Vincent Enyeama told ESPN before the tournament that the coach should focus on building a defensive fortress: "The should try to not concede silly goals. That's the most important thing."
With defenders scattered across small clubs in Europe, and many barely managing to get game time, there was understandable concern about how the Super Eagles would navigate their way to the business end of the Africa Cup of Nations with such a goal-guzzling defence.
As if that was not bad enough, there were even worse issues with goalkeeping. Francis Uzoho had almost universally lost the confidence of fans, despite Peseiro publicly expressing confidence in him. But his limited club minutes, and Maduka Okoye's decision to make himself unavailable meant there was fear that things could turn ugly at the back for Nigeria.
None of that has proven to be the case. In this, their final group game of the tournament, the Super Eagles never looked in any danger of conceding. They were tight at the back, quick to the tackle and cleaned up with relative ease.
William Troost-Ekong has looked a player reborn, even though he missed this game; Calvin Bassey has been supremely unyielding, and while Semi Ajayi still has his moments, he has been largely uncompromising. In the wide areas, there is little more that needs to be said about the outstanding Ola Aina and Bright Osayi-Samuel.
Neither against Equatorial Guinea nor against Cote d'Ivoire did they look in any serious danger of being opened up. Their only goal conceded, scored by Equatorial Guinea, resulted from a defensive error. And it was also the closest the Ivoriens came to scoring, when Zaidu Sanusi's error almost gifted the Elephants a goal until newly minted goalkeeper Stanley Nwabali intervened.
Speaking of Nwabali, few hoped, and fewer still expected he would wrest the starting spot from Uzoho. But he did, and so far, he has brought an air of confidence and stability to the goalline that has actually got Nigerians purring again.
He is big enough to fill the post, nimble enough to move around with agility, confident in his ball handling and shot stopping, vocal in the area and can even play sweeper keeper. So far, he has the most clean sheets (2) of any goalkeeper in the tournament.
It is said that goals win games and defence wins championships. If the Super Eagles do go on to win this, it will be on the strength of their rejuvenated defence and brand new goalkeeper, of course.
Looking ahead to the knockouts
Not winning the group has put them in a situation where they face the runners up from Group C, which could mathematically be any of Senegal, Guinea or Cameroon. All of those are tough nuts to crack, and really could have been avoided.
But here is the good news: the Super Eagles have almost always done well when faced with pressure at AFCON, but jammed themselves up when given seemingly easy targets. In 2021 they raced through the group phase with nine of nine points and faced the "easy" task of Tunisia, who barely made it out of their own group with three, as one of the third best losers. That did not end well.
In 2013, they had to get past Côte d'Ivoire as their first knockout opponents. In 2019, that final day group phase stumble against Madagascar put them up against arch nemesis Cameroon. They survived and moved on. In 2010, they also had to face a rising Zambia team, they survived it.
This team have been built to be tough to beat by Peseiro. Finishing second may not be the worst thing ever. It could actually be good to keep the players in the pressure cooker that helps them perform.
Like Peseiro said: "If we play and show a good performance, put the maximum focus, commitment and show our team quality, it is not easy for any team to beat us. If we don't do it, any team can beat us."