Barring the football equivalent of a miracle, Barcelona will go out of the Champions League round of 16 for the first time since 2007. If the Spanish champions lose against Atletico Madrid at the Calderon this Saturday, then the club that has won six of the last eight La Liga titles will, effectively, be on the canvas and taking a count from the referee: and in February, no less.
These are genuinely dramatic facts.
Cynics might judge that the third horseman of the footballing apocalypse came into view this week when Gerard Pique commented that "we are all united behind the coach and we are with him to the end." While I'm certain Pique spoke with sincerity in his passionate defence of Luis Enrique, it's usually only with retrospect that players begin to share their truest feelings about a particular era under a particular manager.
The central defender noted that Barcelona's players have a vested interest in keeping possession more than they've been able to of late because if they end up sprinting "from box to box," they've got "more to lose than to win." It's the antithesis of their infamous playing style.
In itself, that admission does beg the question: why has Barcelona's coach allowed a continuous diminution of the importance of the "possession and position" DNA of this club?
The players may be supportive of Luis Enrique and full of hope that they can mount a comeback in the league, but I don't believe the "old hands" share his view of how to adhere to the footballing principles of Johan Cruyff and Pep Guardiola. However, one thing is sure: when Pique also talked about the team's play having lost some of its identity, about "fragility" and about how the performances have been on a downward trajectory, he was pinpoint accurate about a process that's been noticeable for months.
Add all of this together and it's crystal clear: Barcelona have serious football issues on their hands right now and both major trophies, the league and the Champions League, look like odd-against bets. However, that doesn't mean the debate should become hysterical, and I've been deeply underwhelmed by the furore around Andre Gomes while Barcelona's season has gradually unraveled.
Wherever you turn, whether listening to fans or media, the young Portuguese midfielder is taking quite a hammering right now. They have an expression in Spanish: "el malo de la película," or "the villain of the movie." Gomes is being unfairly portrayed as the bad guy. What's inescapable is the fact that Gomes hasn't been playing with authority, nor to the level expected of him -- at least not recently. With each passing week, his errors of nerve and the kind of position/possession mistakes that stem both from a player undergoing his Camp Nou apprenticeship and beginning to hear the murmurs of disapproval (even whistles) are more evident.
Several things exacerbate that growing level of criticism and the rapidly decreasing patience shown in him.
First, Gomes' fee is widely understood to have been €40 million from Valencia, a club deeply in debt and that has spent much of the last two seasons fighting to stay clear of the relegation battle. Frankly, there's not much Gomes can do about that. What he cost is hardly his fault. If, as I've been reading recently, Barcelona were led to believe that Madrid were closing in on this young talent and revised what they were willing to pay as a result, that's a matter for the Camp Nou bean-counters, the club president and the director of football.
Secondly, the Euro 2016 winner with Portugal has been keeping Ivan Rakitic out of the team. Luis Enrique's treatment of Rakitic, a valuable, experienced, intelligent and multitalented footballer, has been truly perplexing. It's even more confusing when, to cut to the chase, Gomes has been struggling to perform at anything near the level which the Croat is capable of producing.
Hence why sections of Barcelona's support and the football media have been more harsh in analysing Gomes' contribution to the team in recent weeks. They appear to feel, especially in context with the player's transfer fee, that he somehow bears extra responsibility to perform exceptionally because of something completely beyond his control, namely Luis Enrique's selection policy. It's nonsensical.
Thirdly, it has been a rapid "descent" from making history in 2012, when Barcelona briefly had 11 players on the pitch in a league game against Levante who had each been developed within the Camp Nou academy, to Sunday night, when, for the first time in La Liga history, Barça lined up with 10 non-Spanish players in their ranks.
I'm afraid that for some, Gomes has begun to represent that brusque change. Despite not having grown up in Barcelona's "futbol base," he's been asked to interchange between all three of the midfield positions, including the ultra-complicated role of "pivote" normally occupied by Sergio Busquets.
This is some ask. Not only is the playing system for which the modern Barcelona has become famous terrifically intricate, Gomes is trying to learn his lines while trying to help steady a team in which few around him are playing well and when there has been an eroding of the core values that make their playing system successful.
That's a lot of plates for a 23-year-old to keep spinning at the same time.
At the end of the ragged and rather fortunate 2-1 win over Leganes at the weekend, Barcelona's director of football, Robert Hernandez, was asked about Gomes and the hostile reception he received from the crowd.
"I don't understand it; everyone out there was trying their best," he said. "Andre has great skills to succeed here but he'll need time to learn our system, which is unique. Right now the challenge for us is to 'recuperate' the Andre Gomes we want to see." It's an acknowledgement that this is all now weighing heavily on the midfielder's shoulders.
So here are a couple of thoughts -- important ones, I think. Set aside his relatively tender age and just look at two specific things.
Last season, Gomes wasn't rowing at an Olympic pace; he and his crewmates were baling water out of the good ship SS Valencia before it sank. He and the rest of the Mestalla squad had a dreadful and traumatic time, eventually avoiding the bottom three by just six points. Anyone who imagines that's a healthy, inspirational or developmental atmosphere is either kidding themselves or would be better sticking to dominoes.
Gomes then played and trained throughout the summer until July 10, given that he won Euro 2016 with Portugal. That period from August 2015 until mid-July 2016 must have been the most difficult, emotional, mentally and physically draining months in his entire life. Just when he should have been ensconced at Barcelona, learning the endless positional, passing and pressing rules that once governed their play, he was on holiday -- but not fully relaxed as his transfer was being negotiated.
I remember Zinedine Zidane once admitting that it took him about six months to recover, emotionally and physically, from having won the World Cup in 1998, at which stage the midfielder was 26 and had a couple of full seasons at Juve under his belt.
Andre Schurrle, at Chelsea, was the same. Having won the World Cup in Brazil, he told his coaches at Stamford Bridge that he had no idea why he was drained and mentally woozy for so many months after the summer triumph despite working harder than ever to get his sharpness back. He was the same age as Gomes is now. No account seems to have been taken of the fact that the Portuguese may well not be in the right conditions, either mentally or physically, to cope with the massive pressure upon him.
Whatever his intentions were, Luis Enrique should really have understood that it would help his player, help the team and help Rakitic if the games were shared between them in a far shrewder fashion.
I'll go out on a limb here. While Gomes patently hasn't been hitting the level necessary over the last few weeks, I think I've seen enough in him to suggest there's a very good footballer whose importance is being obscured by a cocktail of difficult circumstances. He seems to have an eye for goal, the ability to dribble past players, the skill to pick a pass, the physical ability to shield the ball and a mind quick enough to develop from being the guy who's given the ball so that he can "do" something with it to being the guy who controls the tempo and prompts others into "doing" something with possession.
Part of the beauty of football is that beauty is often in the eye of the beholder. However, I'm not trying to suggest that the Portuguese is playing sublime football that everybody else is just too slow to see. He's definitely short of form and confidence right now.
What I'd argue is that Barcelona's horrible form is not his fault, that his presence in the team should have been managed differently and that his price tag is anything but his fault. Essentially, there's far more of a promising talent in Gomes waiting to burst out than I can see anyone suggesting right now.
We may get proof of this once people stop booing him, whistling him, slagging him off and, in the case of the coach, over-playing him.