The January transfer window is almost upon us, yet after a summer of unexpectedly big spending across Europe (particularly in the Premier League), it looks like next month will be relatively calm by comparison. Two years on from the outbreak of COVID-19, the pandemic continues to impact football in many ways, and the world of scouting and recruitment is one area that has been massively affected.
As I have previously written, the restrictions on attending games and travel have had a big impact on scouts. While players are still being assessed and signings made, there has been a definite shift from relying on physical scouting reports and recommendations to an emphasis on data and analytics.
In spite of COVID-19, the French TV deal collapsing spectacularly and the shambolic efforts to start a new European Super League, on the surface the game may not seem to have been as badly hit as first expected. While it's a long way from getting back to normal, competitions are still taking place, players are being paid, and if there's a pressing need for reinforcements then owners seem willing to try and make it happen.
Most clubs, however, are still adopting a cautious approach to transfers, and while several are planning to do some business in the January transfer window, "uncertain" and "quiet" were the words most commonly used when I asked a handful of insiders to describe the mood of the market. One agent who works across Europe told ESPN: "I don't expect to move many players -- perhaps the odd loan. Otherwise, the business keeps ticking over by taking care of contract extensions or the unexpected move, which comes about as a result of a sudden injury or a domino-type sale."
Those thoughts are echoed by Ilja Kaenzig, the CEO of German Bundesliga side Bochum, who said: "I only expect to see substantial activity at the top end of the market, among those clubs that have the resources to plan ahead. For the many smaller clubs affected by COVID it's not the time to spend. Not only because the money isn't there, but also because it would look irresponsible."
There's precious little optimism to be found in France's Ligue 1 either. While Qatari-owned Paris Saint-Germain will be able to operate in their own financial world, the reality is quite different for most clubs. At Clermont Foot, managing director of football Ingo Winter sees little action ahead. "Once again it's going to be a difficult transfer window," he said. "We are still not out of the COVID-19 crisis and what we see now is definitely not comparable to how things were before the pandemic hit. Big moves will probably represent the exception, while the rest will focus on low-risk transfers or loans."
Meanwhile, an international scout from one of the top Italian sides who spoke to ESPN on condition of anonymity is not convinced that there'll be much activity among the big hitters either. "During the past few years, January has increasingly become less of a time for big transfers -- and let's not forget that some of the previous big spenders are in a bad state financially," he said. "This will no doubt affect the ability to spend across the board."
Despite the pessimism among football insiders, recruitment preparations behind the scenes have remained active throughout the pandemic. Whereas typically clubs would send scouts across Europe and beyond to see potential reinforcements in the flesh, the restrictions to travel and accessing live games (and training sessions) have seen clubs tweak, or even completely change, their approach to recruitment.
Indeed, the pandemic has not just seen a shift towards a "soft" integration of data scouting and analytics -- there's now a consensus that crunching the numbers is gradually edging out what can be picked up by the naked eye. Kaenzig explains: "The use of various online platforms and scouting software has increased massively over the past years and I think the pandemic has been a game-changer. Nowadays, scouting finds are predominantly based on numbers and statistics, then backed up by live reports -- not the other way around, like it used to be."
The Bochum chief can also see a change in how clubs approach the market altogether. "There's a tendency to go for the tried and tested," he added. "Rather than taking on higher risks in opting for a player you have not managed to see multiple times from a less-known foreign league, you tend to look at candidates from your own league instead. Obviously, it does make competition for domestic players rather tough as everyone ends up fishing in the same small pond."
While platforms such as TransferRoom have facilitated a smoother way for scouting staff and executives of professional clubs virtually, Kaenzig still believes the lack of physical meetings puts a lid on some transfer activity.
"The fact that the travel restrictions stop scouts flying to games is one thing, but it's equally hard and impractical for executives to meet with one another, agents, or even players," he said. "Those informal meetings or lunches, in which important relationships used to be built, are crucial for gathering information and are not easily replaced by a video conference call. The result is that you feel less comfortable with the amount of information gathered, which in turn can lead you to go cold on a potential deal."
Across the border in France, Winter has spotted the same trends: "The use of data scouting and analytics has recently exploded. For obvious reasons, it's impossible to watch players live as much as you once did, but it's also related to cost cutting and isn't just due to travel-related complications. Having said that, the live impression remains the decisive factor for us."
One market which has seen its export of players to Europe dry up almost completely is South America. A steady supplier of world-class talent for decades, the continent has been almost unreachable for scouting missions since early 2020 -- partly due to entry being restricted to overseas visitors and partly because games have been played behind closed doors for long periods.
French agent Matthieu Grossin-Rios -- who specialises in the Colombian market and represents the Napoli goalkeeper David Ospina among others -- explains that efforts to introduce European clubs to Colombian talents have mainly been rebuffed due to logistical challenges: "Clubs are understandably reluctant to sign players they haven't seen," he said. "And in the few cases in which a deal has seemed possible, unusually slow visa and work permit processing due to COVID-19 has proved a stumbling block."
The Italy-based scout is still travelling around, though he points out that earlier in his career he used to spend "between 150-200 days a year travelling" while now the emergence of new technology is helping to reduce nights away from home and also his carbon footprint. "In the past we used to spend a lot of time watching academy games abroad, but now platforms that specialise in never-previously-available youth football have emerged," he said. "Which means that U15 or U16 games abroad, or a youth international between two minor nations, would most likely be watched online rather than live.
"The analytics guys have clearly seen their stock rise within the recruitment departments of football clubs. First and foremost, because of a change in practice accelerated by COVID, but also because many owners -- especially the transatlantic ones -- demand reports supported by numbers.
"Still, I believe that the combination of 'traditional' scouting and analytics is the way forward. After all, chief scouts or other key stakeholders in the decision-making process didn't build up their careers obtaining knowledge or expertise in vain -- their opinions still matter, and most clubs that I'm aware of respect that."