With spring ball underway, it's never too early to think about the upcoming season that will be here before we know it.
Last season, we saw multiple teams surprisingly make their way into the College Football Playoff. Arizona State, which was predicted preseason to finish last in the Big 12, ended up winning the league title in its first season. Then there was SMU, and of course, Indiana.
So which team could be surprising us all in the 2025 season?
Our college football reporters give their thoughts on teams and players that could help their teams rise next season.
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Teams to rise
Biggest improvement | Players
Off-the-radar teams
Which non-CFP team from last year do you expect to make the playoff this year?
Jake Trotter: LSU once again has a tough schedule, beginning with the season opener at Clemson. The Tigers face five other teams in ESPN's Way-Too-Early Top 25 rankings (Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama). But LSU has the pieces to make the playoff, highlighted by star quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and the top-ranked transfer class in the country. Another playoff miss would be a big disappointment for coach Brian Kelly in his fourth season in Baton Rouge.
Chris Low: In Kalen DeBoer's first season at Alabama, the Crimson Tide were on the cusp of slipping into the playoff, despite losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, but were then flattened in an inexplicable 24-3 loss at Oklahoma the second-to-last week of the regular season and stayed home. DeBoer will have more of his fingerprints on this team and brought in former colleague Ryan Grubb to run the offense. Quarterback Ty Simpson should fit nicely into Grubb's system. The defense has a chance to be dominant, and the schedule is a bit more manageable with Tennessee and LSU both coming to Tuscaloosa.
David Hale: I'm pretty high on Louisville this year. The ACC is pretty wide open, Jeff Brohm has won 19 games in his first two seasons there and the Cardinals were probably the most "what might've been" team in the country in 2024, losing four games by seven points or fewer. The defense has gotten some upgrades (though the pass rush may be a concern), the receiving corps is as good as it has been under Brohm and Miller Moss gives Brohm arguably his best QB too. But the real key is the ground game. Louisville might as well have the best O-line in the ACC (and one of the best nationally) and its two tailbacks -- Isaac Brown and Duke Watson -- are absolutely electric. The big-play potential on offense is off the charts. For the past two years, Louisville has knocked on the door. In 2025, the Cards burst through it.
Max Olson: LSU is the one that stands out for me, too. The Tigers added an impressive amount of premium, proven talent via the portal in December and their lineup is going to be loaded with newcomers at wide receiver, tight end, cornerback and along offensive and defensive lines. Winning all those recruiting battles wasn't easy and certainly wasn't cheap. Can Brian Kelly put all the pieces together and pull off a special season? This team is going to be fun to watch, and I'd expect significant improvement on defense under second-year DC Blake Baker. One more worth pointing too: I'd expect Miami to operate with a similar level of urgency after coming up short last season.
Andrea Adelson: Considering the depth in the SEC, it feels like the most logical conference from which to choose a team. LSU and Alabama make sense, but what about Texas A&M? Yes, I am well aware of what the history has been, but I also believe Mike Elko knows what it takes to build a winner and transcend some of that bad luck that always seems to hang around College Station. The good news is A&M ranks No. 7 in the nation in returning production -- starting with an offense that has quarterback Marcel Reed back. The Aggies also upgraded their receiver group, bringing in Kevin Concepcion. Their schedule is not easy, but it is pretty clear SEC schools can lose multiple games and still be in contention.
Kyle Bonagura: Alabama is the obvious answer. As Chris pointed out, the Tide was close this past year, despite a less-than-smooth first year under DeBoer. Bringing in Ryan Grubb should make a big difference. I thought he would have been a great candidate to take over at Washington last season and was always impressed by his playcalling for the Huskies as DeBoer's offensive coordinator. Those two go way back, so as much as moving to Alabama was an adjustment for DeBoer, it might have been just as big a challenge to do it with Grubb. Besides, with the resources Alabama has, it's safe to assume it'll always be in the mix here.
Adam Rittenberg: All the SEC contenders and the arguments made are perfectly sensible, but I'm a little surprised that no one has mentioned the most wide-open league out there -- the Big 12. An Arizona State team picked to finish last in the conference before the season ended up going all the way to the CFP. Could the Sun Devils repeat? Sure. But I wouldn't be surprised to see last year's runner-up, Iowa State, make the field for the first time. Coaches are high on quarterback Rocco Becht, and if ISU can replace some outstanding receivers, it could make a push for the Big 12 crown. BYU also returns its quarterback in Jake Retzlaff from an 11-2 team. Colorado should once again have arguably the league's most talented roster, and Texas Tech could use an excellent transfer portal haul to take the next step.
Bill Connelly: Whichever Big 12 team actually wins its close games will be in great shape, and that's rarely the same team two years in a row. That could be bad news for Arizona State (4-1 in one-score finishes in conference play), Iowa State (3-1) and Texas Tech (5-1) and good news for a team such as Utah (1-5) or Oklahoma State (0-3). I'm curious about Utah -- new offensive coordinator (Jason Beck), new set of QBs led by New Mexico's Devon Dampier, veteran offensive line, experienced secondary -- but give me BYU, which returns a healthy amount of overall production and potential gamebreakers in Retzlaff and receiver Chase Roberts. (All that said, the most obvious answer to the original question is probably the right one: Roll Tide.)
Which team will show the greatest improvement from last season?
Hale: I want to say Florida State based simply on the notion that even being average in 2025 would be a massive improvement from 2024. But instead, let's go with Kansas. The Jayhawks were a team I liked to make a run at the Big 12 title last year, but a brutal 2-6 start -- with six losses by a combined 30 points, just one by more than six -- doomed their season. A big issue was the offensive adjustment after the departure of Andy Kotelnicki, but by year's end, Kansas seemed to have figured things out -- winning three straight against ranked foes Iowa State, BYU and Colorado. Now, Jalon Daniels is back, the defense looks solid and Lance Leipold will have his team ready for the opportunity. Don't be shocked if the Jayhawks double their win total from last year's 5-7 campaign.
Olson: Utah was the preseason pick to win the Big 12 entering its debut year in its new conference but endured a nightmarish 5-7 season that was wrecked by injuries, inconsistency and a seven-game losing streak in league play. Kyle Whittingham called it a "Twilight Zone" type of season, and now the Utes will try to prove the program's first losing season since 2013 was merely a bad-luck fluke. They're hoping new offensive coordinator Jason Beck and Devon Dampier, the prolific dual-threat QB he brought with him from New Mexico, can lead a revamped offense and get this program right back in the mix for conference titles and CFP contention.
Connelly: It's hard to say how much the record will improve considering that whole "they have the hardest schedule in the country" thing, but Oklahoma had its best defense in more than a decade and its worst offense since the 1990s last season and took big steps toward rectifying the latter with the addition of coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer from Washington State. If the offensive line improves (it was also OU's worst since the 1990s last year), the combination of Arbuckle, Mateer and a huge load of receiving corps transfers could prompt a pretty big rebound in terms of scoring points. The defense returns quite a bit too. If the Sooners can get off to a fast start -- they host both Michigan and Auburn in September -- they could be a really interesting story once the schedule starts unloading on them in October and November.
Adelson: I am going to go with the easy answer here that Hale avoided: Florida State. Five more wins than last year might be average, but improvement is improvement. Mike Norvell would rather not revisit the complete program breakdown in 2024, but he told me he refuses to waste the lessons learned from last year. He revamped his coaching staff, brought in players from the portal with proven production and has emphasized intangibles such as leadership and playing with an edge. If there is one improvement to count on, it will be the Seminoles' ability to run the ball with what should be a vastly improved offensive line, addition of dual-threat Thomas Castellanos and what they believe is a solid running back group -- including the addition of freshman back Ousmane Kromah.
Bonagura: There is still something to the aura around USC that prevents me from being able to write it off. Lincoln Riley's three-year tenure has been a massive disappointment. To go from 11-3 to 8-5 to 7-6 is the definition of trending in the wrong direction. But it also means there is more room for improvement -- that's how I arrived at them here. The infrastructure is there to be competitive. Riley has the success on his resume. All the ingredients for success are there.
Trotter: Oklahoma State is coming off just its second losing season under Mike Gundy, as the Cowboys inexplicably finished winless in the Big 12. Oklahoma State will have several new faces on both sides of the ball, with major question marks at almost every position. Gundy, however, has thrived over his two decades in Stillwater when the Pokes have been overlooked. And if a few transfers, notably quarterback Hauss Hejny (TCU) and running back Kalib Hicks (Oklahoma), hit, Gundy's track record suggests Oklahoma State will quickly return to respectability if not bowl eligibility.
Low: If it's the same Michigan team that finished the 2024 season, look out. The Wolverines won their last three games of the season, including a 13-10 road victory over eventual national champion Ohio State. In their second season under Sherrone Moore, the Wolverines clearly have to be better on offense and should be with the country's top overall prospect, Bryce Underwood, coming in at quarterback. And even with some key players leaving for the NFL, the defense will again be stifling, especially if safety Rod Moore is healthy. The Wolverines, which finished 8-5 a year ago, weren't that far off from being a 10-win team against a brutal schedule. They faced six top-12 teams. Look for them to be in the middle of the Big Ten race in 2025.
Rittenberg: Some good answers from others, and in an effort not to double up, I'm going with Michigan State. The Spartans had a mostly rough first season under Jonathan Smith, who inherited a challenging roster and faced a difficult schedule. Despite some defensive bright spots early, MSU stumbled to a 5-7 finish. But Smith has more familiarity with his roster and the league, and returns a promising quarterback in Aidan Chiles as well as other intriguing pieces like wide receiver Nick Marsh. The Spartans don't play Ohio State or Oregon this season and get their two toughest opponents, Michigan and Penn State, in East Lansing. Smith hasn't forgotten how to coach and should develop a better and more consistent product in year two.
Which player will make the biggest impact for a team on the rise?
Low: There's no shortage of intriguing quarterbacks in the SEC, and Florida's DJ Lagway is right there at the top of the list. The bummer is that he's dealing with a shoulder problem and will miss spring practice. It's unclear how much he will throw at all this spring, but he's the heartbeat of a Florida team that came alive during the second half of last season under Billy Napier. The true sophomore can do a little bit of everything, and if healthy, has what it takes to carry a football team on his shoulders.
Hale: If we're talking really off the radar, we need a team that a) finished with a losing record in 2024, b) is getting no hype entering 2025, and c) has an actual path to the playoff based on offseason improvements and a manageable schedule. So, who fits that bill? How about Virginia? Hear me out. The Hoos added a solid transfer class led by QB Chandler Morris. They've been building slowly under Tony Elliott for three years, making small steps each season. They have a schedule that avoids both Clemson and Miami in the ACC (their FBS opponents had just a .370 winning percentage against Power 4 competition last year, and only Louisville, Duke and Washington State finished better than .500). Is it likely Virginia makes a playoff run? Of course not. But what would you have said about Arizona State and Indiana a year ago?
Trotter: South Carolina ended the 2024 regular season as one of the hottest teams in college football before narrowly missing out on a playoff berth. The emergence of dual-threat quarterback LaNorris Sellers was a big reason for South Carolina's surge. If Sellers takes another step off from last year's breakout season, the Gamecocks could be a threat to win the SEC and potentially contend for a national title.
Olson: I don't know if many people outside of Waco realize just how good Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson was in 2024. The Bears could've completely collapsed last season after a 2-4 start put a ton of hot-seat pressure on coach Dave Aranda, but the redshirt junior powered a six-game win streak to dramatically turn their season around. Robertson was an ideal fit for new OC Jake Spavital's passing attack and put up 3,071 passing yards with 32 total TDs and just eight turnovers, finishing with the best QBR (82.9) among all Power 4 quarterbacks returning for 2025. Baylor put up 41.3 points per game during the win streak, second-most among all FBS teams over the second half of the regular season. If it can recapture that magic this fall, it'll be a real threat in the Big 12 title race.
Connelly: If I'm right about OU, then Mateer's the obvious answer here. In 12 games last season, he threw for 3,139 yards and rushed for 1,032 (not including sacks) with 44 combined touchdowns. The Sooners' schedule will provide plenty of elite opposition, but he's dynamite. Meanwhile, former OU quarterback -- Jackson Arnold -- will be asked to help tamp down the consistent self-destruction that held Auburn back last season, and if he pulls it off (I'm not entirely convinced), then with an elite receiving corps the Tigers could surge as well.
Rittenberg: Washington coach Jedd Fisch wisely had Demond Williams Jr. start games late last season. The dynamic Williams, who followed Fisch from Arizona to Washington, completed more than 80% of his passes in losses to Oregon and Louisville but left opposing coaches impressed. He will give Washington a chance to take a big step in Fisch's second season, possibly all the way back into CFP contention. Washington also returns top running back Jonah Coleman and veteran wide receiver Denzel Boston. Williams, who had four touchdown passes in the Sun Bowl against Louisville, should be among the most exciting young quarterbacks in the country.
Which off-the-radar team could emerge as a playoff contender?
Trotter: Last year, Arizona State came out of nowhere to stunningly win the Big 12 before taking Texas to the wire in the second round of the playoff. Texas Tech, one of only two teams that handed the Sun Devils a conference loss last year, has the potential to replicate Arizona State's magical run from what appears to be another wide open Big 12 race. The Red Raiders bring back quarterback Behren Morton, who passed for 27 touchdowns with eight interceptions. They also landed the nation's No. 2 portal class behind LSU, with plenty of talent arriving to bolster the trenches.
Low: BYU was right there a year ago and won 11 games. The Cougars lost 28-23 at Arizona State on Nov. 23, finished in a four-way tie for first place in the Big 12 and ultimately missed out on playing in the Big 12 championship game and thus a chance to earn a playoff berth. Kalani Sitake's club will return most of the key pieces from that club, including quarterback Jake Retzlaff. The offensive line will be experienced. The linebacker corps -- Isaiah Glasker, Jack Kelly and Harrison Taggart -- is one of the best in the country, and kicker Will Ferrin is nearly automatic (10-of-12 from 40-plus yards).
Olson: Duke is another off-the-radar team, which offseason moves suggested it's serious about chasing a conference title in 2025. After an impressive nine-win debut season, Manny Diaz and his coaching staff made a massive bet on Tulane transfer QB Darian Mensah, making the rising redshirt sophomore one of the highest-paid passers in the country. He's joining a squad with a dozen returning starters, including four of five starting offensive linemen and All-ACC defensive backs Chandler Rivers and Terry Moore. If Mensah and the rest of their portal additions can pay off, the Blue Devils could have the goods to be a real factor in the ACC race.
Adelson: I am going to throw one more ACC team into the mix: Georgia Tech, whom I have projected higher than Duke and Virginia. The Jackets return one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Haynes King, leading rusher Jamal Haynes and one of the best offensive lines in the ACC with a rapidly improving defense. The Jackets have shown us their potential -- wins over Florida State and Miami last season, a heartbreaking loss to Georgia in eight overtimes -- and coach Brent Key told me this team has made it their mission to be more consistent. They do return the bulk of their production on both sides of the ball and for the first time since Key took over the program, they do not have one of the harder ACC schedules. In fact, Georgia Tech only plays one ranked ACC team in our preseason Way-Too-Early Top 25 -- Clemson -- and that is a home game on Sept. 13. We will know more about this team after its Friday night opener at Colorado.
Bonagura: Let's not forget about the Group of 5 schools. The way I look at it is that the G5 slot will likely come from either the American or Mountain West. Boise State is firmly on the radar, of course, and will be the favorite again in the MW. So, let's look at the AAC. Both Army and Navy were outstanding last year, but it's tough for them to sustain that level of success. Which brings us to Memphis and Tulane. Memphis has just one Power 4 opponent on the schedule -- Arkansas -- so a win there, plus an elusive conference title, would make the Tigers a good option to consider after they went 11-2 last year.
Rittenberg: There are a lot of good selections above, but I wouldn't write off Iowa. The Hawkeyes have made Big Ten championship games but never the CFP. There are two main reasons why it could happen this fall. Iowa finally has a really accomplished quarterback in Mark Gronowski, who led South Dakota State to an FCS national title and has 49 wins and more than 10,000 career passing yards. After years in the QB wilderness, Iowa can rally around a guy capable of moving the ball consistently. The Hawkeyes also miss Ohio State, Michigan and Illinois on the Big Ten schedule, and have their toughest games -- Penn State, Oregon and Indiana -- at Kinnick Stadium. Iowa will visit Iowa State and Nebraska but has had a ton of success in both venues. If the Hawkeyes defend their home turf, look out for a CFP run.
Connelly: Sorry, I passed out for a moment at Hale's Virginia suggestion. Iowa's a great answer for the simple fact that the Hawkeyes lost a ton of close games last year and upgraded at QB, but ... are we sleeping on last year's off-the-radar surprise, Indiana, a bit too much? It feels like a lot of way-too-earlies slipped the Hoosiers into the bottom of their top 25s out of respect, and one-year wonders do tend to fall back to the pack a bit, but IU didn't reach 11-2 on the power of a bunch of close wins -- it was blowing teams out for the most part, and it returns a lot of key pieces from what was an outstanding defense. The Hoosiers obviously need Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza to stick at QB, but he'll have lots of fun skill corps weapons, and his offensive line will be more experienced than what Kurtis Rourke dealt with last season. They do face trips to Oregon and Penn State, but getting to 10-2 would likely get them in again.