Europa League final: Inter vs. Sevilla preview, key players, prediction

After falling to Slavia Prague in the Europa round of 16 last year, then taking an upset against Mirandes in the Copa del Rey round of 16 this year, it appears they've stocked back up on tournament mojo. They're one win from a sixth Europa title, but this will likely be their toughest final yet.

Exactly how good are Inter right now?

Really, really good. Like, "almost Bayern" good. They lost only four matches all year in Serie A -- two of those were defeats to Juventus that made the difference in the title race, unfortunately -- and their only loss since play resumed in June was a fluky 2-1 defeat against Bologna that included a missed penalty, two red cards and an Expected Goals (XG) advantage of 2.9 to 1.1 for Inter. (We call that the Manchester City Special.)

Antonio Conte's side secured second place in the league by beating Napoli and Atalanta, 2-0 each, in the last two matches of the Italian season. And in the Europa knockouts in Germany, they beat Getafe with ease, raced to a 2-0 lead against Bayer Leverkusen and held on, and then absolutely throttled Shakhtar Donetsk, 5-0. They are a wrecking ball at the moment.

Yeah, but we've seen good runs from Inter before, right? False hope, perhaps?

We have, but it's been a while since they produced anything like this.

EloFootball.com has been running European club rankings since 1956 and currently ranks Inter seventh; this year will end with their highest ranking since their 2010 Champions League run, but it goes beyond even that: they hadn't finished higher than 19th since 2011 and spent most of 2013-17 stuck in the 30s or worse. Their "big club" status seemed to have expired.

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The combination of first-year coach Conte, first-year signee Romelu Lukaku (33 goals in all competitions) and a core of contributors approaching their respective primes -- defenders Stefan de Vrij and Milan Skriniar, midfielders Marcelo Brozovic and Nicolo Barella, breakout forward Lautaro Martinez -- have brought life to a club that has longed for it for a while. If this core remains intact, we could be witnessing the beginning of a multiyear run.

The Nerazzurri had maybe the most methodical buildup play in Serie A -- they averaged just 83.3 possessions per match (fewest in the league) and 6.0 passes per possession (fourth-most), and they had among the lowest averages for long-ball attempts, percentage of forward passes and direct speed (average verticality of a given sequence of actions). In other words, they took their time and didn't give you the ball in vulnerable areas of the field.

Inter also avoided allowing too many counterattacks when they lost the ball and boasted among the most effective presses in the league: they were fourth in passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA). They don't pressure you non-stop, but they pick their spots awfully well and they give you nothing easy, as evidenced by the fact that they allowed the fewest goals and second-lowest XG-per-shot average in Serie A. They've also allowed just one goal in their last seven overall matches. They always have defenders behind the ball, but the combo of Lukaku and Martinez, along with the brilliant and steady passing of Brozovic, Skriniar and de Vrij (all of whom attempted at least 1,600 passes and completed at least 90% of them in league play), make them dangerous in attack all the same.

This all came together with a perfect showing against Shakhtar; Inter sprung surprise pressure to set up multiple goals and when Shakhtar, a very fun passing and attacking team, actually enjoyed longer spans of possession, they couldn't find a single crack to exploit.

So... can Sevilla win?

It's a tall task for sure, but it's worth noting that Manchester United was ranked seventh in the Elo rankings until they played Sevilla and lost. Sevilla's form has improved a lot of late: after generating just five points in seven matches against Elo top-40 teams before the stoppage, they have managed 12 in six matches since, including a draw with Barcelona and the three knockout wins in this Europa League return. They haven't actually lost a match in any competition since Feb. 9, and they're up to 14th in Elo themselves, recently jumping ahead of both Borussia Dortmund and Chelsea. This will be their highest finish since ending up ninth in 2015.

Like Inter, Sevilla enjoy a steady buildup. They ranked third in La Liga in average passes per possession (5.5), third in possession rate and near the bottom in long balls, forward passes, etc. But while they were third in the league in PPDA, they were more vulnerable to pressure than Inter have been. League opponents began 0.7 more possessions per 90 in their attacking third than Sevilla did. Of course, that was only a domestic vulnerability -- they've started 9.6 possessions per 90 in the attacking third in Europa play (third among teams reaching the knockout rounds) and have allowed only 4.2 (second). They always save their best selves for Europa.

This match could simply come down to the number of crippling mistakes each team makes during buildup play. Both teams want to take their time, and both are smart about when they apply pressure. Inter's ceiling is almost certainly higher than Sevilla's, but if the team in blue and black makes three crippling errors to Sevilla's one or two, that could be that.

Who are your favorite players in this game?

My own personal favorites? Thanks for asking! Let's see...

Romelu Lukaku. From Lukaku to Angel di Maria to Memphis Depay, you could write a book about the players who looked great as youngsters, joined Manchester United for a year or two, left as disappointments and resumed greatness elsewhere. Lukaku averaged 0.52 goals per match in all competitions during four seasons at Everton, fell to 0.44 in two years at United (which isn't horrible), then surged to 0.66 in his first season at Inter. He has scored in 10 consecutive Europa League matches going back to his United days. And he is, by all accounts, a good dude and great teammate. He's immovable and easy to root for.

Jesus Navas. Sevilla's captain and right-back has led the team with 9.9 xA (expected assists) in all competitions this year and is second in actual assists, first in both chances created and big chances created, first in key passes, second in ball recoveries, third in intercepted passes, fourth in ball clearances, fifth in take-ons and and first, by far, in total minutes. He is a machine on both ends of the field. He's also 34 years old. He played in Spain's World Cup win 10 years ago. It's unfair to be that good at something for that long.

Marcelo Brozovic. In a piece about the 2019-20 European season last week, I noted that while clubs are getting smarter in the shots they take, Italian teams still have a place in their heart for grand gestures, i.e. long shots that have almost no chance of success. Inter's attack has been led by the ultra-efficient Lukaku and Martinez, but they still let Brozovic take a couple of long, hopeful, Damian Lillard-style bombs each match.

In Europe and Serie A play, he was third on the team in shot attempts, but those shots averaged only 0.07 XG each. (Anything below 0.10 is bad.) Only three resulted in goals, and one went in off of a deflection, but those other two were glorious swishes. Brozovic is, of course, a masterful and responsible high-volume passer, but he's still got a romantic side to him, too.

Lucas Ocampos. Those crippling mistakes I mentioned above? If Inter commits them, Ocampos will likely be the one both creating and taking advantage of them. The Sevilla right-winger has won more possessions in the attacking third than any of his teammates, and has nearly one-fifth of all of Sevilla's touches in the opponent's box. Predictably, he's a distant first in goals scored, but he's also third in assists. He creates chaos and capitalizes on it, one way or another.

So what's your prediction?

Picking against Sevilla in a tournament that might as well be named the Sevilla Cup feels wrong. It might be wrong. But Inter has just been too good of late. At the moment, I would pick them against anybody in Europe not named Bayern or PSG. We'll say Sevilla makes life complicated for a while, but Inter eventually takes the lead, then ices the match late. 3-1 Inter.