For the U.S. men's national team, the knockout rounds of the 2026 World Cup have begun.
After winning Group D to put themselves in the best position to make a deep run in this World Cup, the Americans defeated Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 to advance to the round of 16. If they win their next match, they would make history: In the modern World Cup, the U.S. has made it past the round of 16 once, and that was 24 years ago.
So, can they do it? ESPN will keep bringing you regularly updated permutations, odds and projections that will follow the likely U.S. path through the World Cup. Stick around and bookmark this page for the latest.
USMNT scenarios and permutations: What is the team's path through the World Cup?
The U.S. clinched a spot in the knockout rounds by following up a 4-1 win over Paraguay with a 2-0 victory against Australia, topping Group D despite slipping to a 2-3 loss to Türkiye.
As top seed from Group D, the USMNT got to square off against one of the third-placed teams that made it through the round of 32: Group B's Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Another bonus of topping the group: Mauricio Pochettino's side will stay on the west coast, with a path taking in San Francisco, Seattle and Los Angeles if they are to make it to the quarterfinals. A worse finish in Group D could've sent them on longer road trips to Massachusetts, New Jersey, Texas or Kansas.
Wednesday saw two crucial matches play out: the Americans duly triumphed 2-0 over Bosnia-Herzegovina, while European heavyweights Belgium defeated Senegal 3-2 in extra time. That means the United States will face Belgium in the round of 16.
Next match: United States vs. Belgium (July 6, 8 p.m. ET, Seattle)
If the USMNT manages to win that, next the Americans will play one of Spain, Austria, Portugal or Croatia in the quarterfinals in Los Angeles on July 10.
USMNT betting odds: How sportsbooks think the Americans will do
Even if you aren't into betting, the odds set by sportsbooks can be a pretty decent gauge of where the U.S. stands in the tournament. After all, oddsmakers have a financially vested interest in getting their World Cup guesses right so they can set betting lines accordingly.
With that, here's where DraftKings puts the U.S. after beating Bosnia and Herzegovina:
Odds to win the World Cup: +2800, or 28-to-1 odds.
That's an improvement over the +6000 the U.S. was at before the tournament began, or the +4000 odds from before the U.S. beat Australia. But at +2800, it still is an implied probability of less than 4%. (So, they are saying there's a chance!)
Odds to beat Belgium: -130 (implied odds of 54% after removing sportsbook's cut)
Odds of losing to Belgium: +105 (implied odds of 46%)
The sportsbook has the U.S. as slight favorites, and that was the case even before Folarin Balogun's red card was suspended, meaning he will be eligible to play against Belgium.
USMNT projections: How data models see the World Cup playing out
If you don't want to listen to the gambling sharks, how about the data nerds? There are several models out there trying to predict the 2026 World Cup, but over the course of the tournament, Michael Caley's PADDLIN' model has emerged as our favorite.
Its projection model incorporates both results and statistical measures of underlying performance, including expected goals, for all international teams. It also uses estimates of player value from Transfermarkt to adjust these measures based on the projected quality of the team's World Cup squad.
So, how deep into the knockout rounds will the U.S. advance? While a lot will depend on who they end up facing, of course, here are the model's current projections:
Quarterfinals: 50%
Semifinals: 16%
Final: 5%
Winner: 2%
But hey, World Cups aren't won or lost based on probabilities and predictions. The games have to be played, and anything can happen. We'll be following along, so stay tuned.