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If you like tension or things coming down to the wire, this probably hasn't been your favorite European soccer season. It feels like months since Bayer Leverkusen and Inter Milan clinched their respective league titles, and among Europe's top seven leagues, only the Premier League's title is still up for grabs. (And that's only if you consider it possible for someone other than Manchester City to win the Premier League eventually.) Outside of Italy, there's less drama than usual in the relegation fight, too, and even the race for UEFA Champions League spots has been mostly sewn up before the deadline. Who will get some of those Champions League spots, however, is absolutely fascinating. Only three of England's Big Six clubs will likely play in the newly expanded tournament next season because Aston Villa is closer and closer to sewing up a spot. Stuttgart, which narrowly survived relegation last season, is definitively Germany's third-best team. LaLiga's Girona and Ligue 1's Brest, which have never finished higher than 10th and eighth in league play, respectively, are currently second and third. Bologna, which last finished in Italy's top four back in 1967, is quite likely to do so again. That's a lot of new blood right there! Oh, and depending on if Borussia Dortmund wins this year's Champions League final (and France's fourth-place team survives a qualification playoff), Europe's Big Five leagues could have as many as 23 teams in next year's 36-team Champions League field. But nearly a quarter of those bids could go to teams that began the season as afterthoughts in the race. How did we get here? How did we stockpile so many surprising upstart stories at once? Let's break down what each team has done so well this season and, in this mercenary environment of top-level European football, let's look at the key players and/or coaches each club will have to fight to hold onto this summer.
 Stuttgart, Bundesliga
What they've done so well: They're just really good More than any team on this list, Stuttgart have gotten to this point by simply being awesome. They began to improve late last season once manager Sebastian Hoeness was hired: Their 1.63 points per game with him in charge was fifth-best in the league, which helped pull them out of an automatic relegation spot and into the playoff. Combine Hoeness' effectiveness with a shockingly impressive summer transfer window -- they sent defender Konstantinos Mavropanos (to West Ham) and midfielder Wataru Endo (to Liverpool) to the Premier League for a combined €40 million, brought in Rennes' Serhou Guirassy, Hoffenheim's Angelo Stiller and Hertha Berlin's Maximilian Mittelstädt for a combined €15m, and acquired a quartet of loanees (Brighton's Deniz Undav, Bayern Munich's Alexander Nübel, Union Berlin's Jamie Leweling and Toulouse's Anthony Rouault) who have combined for nearly 7,000 minutes -- and the team was completely transformed. Stuttgart are fourth in the Bundesliga in goals scored and third in goals allowed. They produce constant high-quality shots (second in xG per shot, third in shots that were worth at least 0.3 xG), and they attempt far more shots than their opponent (third in shots per possession margin). Hoeness has implemented a strong all-around possession game (third in possession rate, total touches and pass attempts), and they press like a proper possession team is supposed to (fourth in passes allowed per defensive action, or PPDA, and third in goals from high turnovers). They've come closer than anyone in beating Bayer Leverkusen, with two league draws and a last-second DFB Pokal loss to show for their efforts, and they've won a combined five of seven matches against Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig and Champions League finalist Borussia Dortmund. In the ultimate sign of affirmation, four Stuttgart players (Mittelstädt, Undav, winger Chris Führich and center-back Waldemar Anton) were called up to the German national team in the last international window. Red flag: typical possession-team things You can occasionally catch them prone on a counter-attack -- they have allowed the sixth-most shots of 0.3 xG or higher in the league, and they rank 16th in opponents' average post-shot xG for shots on target. That means that, while opponents don't create many shots against them, the ones they get are placed in pretty dangerous areas. Stuttgart can also trust their buildup play a bit too much: Opponents have created the sixth-most high turnovers and scored the sixth-most goals from high turnovers. Who are they in danger of losing? Guirassy and Undav have been spectacular, combining for 46 goals and 11 assists in all competitions and constantly creating (and converting) high-level opportunities from central areas. 
 (Source: TruMedia)
Undav, however, is on loan and while the 28-year-old Guirassy is older than the typical big-club transfer candidate, his cheap release clause -- supposedly in the €17.5 million range -- will make him awfully attractive. Plus, the 41-year-old Hoeness, with successful stints at both Hoffenheim and Stuttgart already on his resume, could still end up on a bigger club's radar screen. (I'm honestly shocked Bayern hasn't tried harder to land him thus far.) That said, Undav is pushing to make his Stuttgart stay permanent and for as good as the duo has been, the spine of the team, from Anton and Dan-Axel Zagadou in the back to Mittelstädt and Stiller pushing the ball into dangerous areas and Fuhrich creating a team-leading 59 chances up front, has been just as vital to its success. Most of those pieces should remain in Stuttgart for their first Champions League go-round since 2009-10.
 Girona, LaLiga
Current position (and Opta ranking): second in LaLiga (18th) Odds of reaching the Champions League (per Opta): 100.0% (if UEFA clears them, anyway)
What they have done so well: A swashbuckling attack in a less-than-prolific league While an increase in scoring has been a major subplot for the 2023-24 season, goals have really only been a thing in England (1.63 goals per game in the Premier League) and Bundesliga (1.60). Teams are still averaging only 1.31 goals per game in LaLiga, and while that's up from last year (1.26) and higher than Serie A (1.29), it's still not particularly high. Don't tell that to Girona, however. The tiny club from greater Barcelona, with a 14,000-capacity stadium, is enjoying an all-time season because of a delightful attack that ranks second in goals and first in xG per shot. They have twice beaten Barcelona by 4-2 margins, and they've won other league matches by scores of 5-3, 5-2, 5-1, 4-3 (against Atletico Madrid, no less), 4-2 (twice), 4-1, 3-2 and 3-0 (twice). Ukrainian forward Artem Dovbyk, acquired from Dnipro-1 in August, has scored 20 goals with eight assists in all competitions, veteran Cristhian Stuani has scored 13 goals mostly off the bench, and four other players have either eight or nine assists. That list of players doesn't even include the brilliant Aleix García, who has six assists from 52 chances created and ranks second in LaLiga in progressive passes, behind only Real Madrid's Toni Kroos. The 26-year-old has controlled the midfield like few can this season. 
(Source: TruMedia)
Red flag: Passive defense As incredible as the Gironistes have been in attack, their defense has not been particularly Champions League-worthy. They may dominate the shot quality battle, but they rank 18th in shots allowed per possession; opponents actually attempt more shots than them overall and, on average, start possessions further up the pitch. Girona force the fourth-fewest high turnovers in the league, and while they've made the most of what they've gotten -- they're third in goals from high turnovers, which is incredibly efficient -- this puts an infinite amount of pressure on their attack to convert what they get. Anything less than brilliance in attack, and they're in trouble. Considering who they might lose this summer, that's problematic. Who are they in danger of losing? For starters, Garcia is a constant subject of transfer rumors (Barcelona! Aston Villa! Bayer Leverkusen! Bournemouth for some reason!), and Arsenal are among many clubs keeping an eye on Dovbyk. Meanwhile, three other key players -- winger Sávio, center back Eric García and fullback Yan Couto -- are in on loan. Couto is employed by Girona's parent club Manchester City, and Savio is headed there this summer. Manager Michel Sanchez appears likely to stay at this point, but his brilliant performance this season certainly raised his stock as well. Girona's ties to the City Group should assure that they have access to other interesting loanees, but the club achieved a pretty magical recipe this season and will have to basically re-create it from scratch this summer. That's hard to do.
 Bologna, Serie A
What they have done so well: Control, control, control Maybe the most intriguing thing about this year's batch of successful underdogs is that they've overachieved through attacking, not through lowest-common-denominator defending. Like Stuttgart, Bologna has come to the brink of its first Champions League bid since 1964-65 (when it was the European Cup) and its first continental competition of any kind since 1999-2000 by playing the kind of possession ball that has typically been only the richest clubs' endeavor. They are second in Serie A in possession rate (58.1%) and second in total touches and pass attempts. When they lose the ball, they press with vigor: They're third in PPDA and third in total ball recoveries. This has done predictably solid things for their attack -- the duo of 22-year-old forward Joshua Zirkzee and 26-year-old right winger Riccardo Orsolini has combined for 21 league goals and six assists while attacking midfielder Lewis Ferguson has chipped in six and three, respectively -- but they've been almost Arsenal-esque in using possession as a defensive weapon. They've allowed the league's second-fewest shots per possession and, therefore, the second-fewest goals. Manager Thiago Motta, 41 years old and not that far removed from a celebrated playing career, was, like Arsenal's Mikel Arteta, a ball-controlling force as a midfielder; now his team reflects that too.  (Source: TruMedia) Red flag: When they lose control, it's ugly Aside from 32-year-old defensive midfielder Remo Freuler, in on a loan-to-buy deal from Nottingham Forest, Motta's squad is young. Of the 12 outfield players with more than 1,000 league minutes, six are 24 years old or younger, including 21-year-old defenders Riccardo Calafiori and Victor Kristiansen. Bologna have mostly gotten away with this inexperience, but the youth occasionally shows. Opponents have scored 18 goals from high turnovers, fourth-most in Serie A, and if immediate counter-pressing isn't successful, Bologna can get pinned in on their end of the field. To steal an American football term, they are 16th in the league in field position margin (your average starting field position minus your opponent's). This has been particularly costly against Italy's best teams. They have played the league's top three teams five times and have come away with just two draws and three losses. Sweeping Roma and Atalanta should assure a fourth-place finish, but there's room to grow here. Who are they in danger of losing? Motta, for starters. If you believe the rumor mill, both Juventus and AC Milan are thinking about making a run at him, and even if Bologna hold onto him, his young age and big name should ensure he remains on candidate lists moving forward. Beyond that, both Kristiansen and winger Alexis Saelemaekers are in town on loan deals (though both have affordable buy options), and Zirkzee's breakout season in such a high-profile position could mean that a big-money move is on the way. This team has a great young core, but losing Motta and Zirkzee would create the need for some serious summer recovery work.
 Aston Villa, English Premier League
What they have done so well: Create a clear plan, and stick to it Spend as much as you responsibly can, hire a proven manager (Unai Emery), craft a plan and follow it. Aston Villa spend more than most clubs outside of the very richest tier, and despite the demands of playing in Europe for the first time in 13 years, they've just about closed in on their first top-four Premier League finish since 1995-96. Their biggest asset: brilliant attacking talent and depth. Ollie Watkins, Leon Bailey and Douglas Luiz have combined for a stunning 51 goals and 35 assists in all competitions, while John McGinn and newcomer Moussa Diaby have pitched in with 20 and 18, respectively. Watkins currently has more combined goals and assists than Erling Haaland, Cole Palmer, Mohamed Salah and everyone else in the Premier League.  (Source: TruMedia) Villa are fifth in the Premier League in goals scored, fourth in xG per shot and fifth in assists, and their midfield, graced primarily by Luiz, McGinn, Youri Tielemans and Boubacar Kamara, is one of the best in the league, good enough to help lead them to three wins in four tries against Arsenal and Manchester City. This club has been carrying itself like a member of the Premier League's Big Six, and now it's better than half of them. Red flag: A mid-table defense The individual talent in attack and midfield is undeniable, but the defense has only sometimes held up its end of the bargain. Villa are 19th in xG allowed per shot, and it takes them a while to win the ball back: They're 12th in PPDA, 15th in average starting field position, 16th in high turnovers created and 20th in overall ball recoveries. They command the middle of the field brilliantly, but occasional vulnerability on the wings has led to occasionally severe missteps: losses of 4-1 (to Manchester City), 4-0 (Spurs), 3-1 and 5-1 (Newcastle), 3-2 (Manchester United) and 3-0 (Liverpool) in league play, a 3-1 loss to Chelsea in the FA Cup, a 4-2 home loss to Olympiacos last week in the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinals. Who are they in danger of losing? With Emery having signed a fresh, new contract extension and with a generally fat budget, Villa are in less danger of getting picked apart than most in this piece. Watkins has been linked to Arsenal (as has basically every other center-forward with more than 10 goals), but Villa's depth of attackers should allow them to continue scoring at a Champions League level regardless. The major fight could be over Luiz. He has become one of the best and most unique attacking midfielders in Europe -- he's first on the team in touches, chances created and progressive passes and third in goals, assists and progressive carries - and losing him to Arsenal or anyone else would be particularly damaging.
 Brest, French Ligue 1
Current position (and Opta ranking): third (49th) Odds of reaching the Champions League (per Opta): 64.0% chance of automatic qualification, plus a 34.5% of finishing fourth in Ligue 1 and landing in the qualification playoffs
What they have done so well: It's that possession game again! Thirty years ago, Stade Brestois was battling back from bankruptcy and working its way back up from the amateur ranks. They've now spent eight of the past 13 seasons in the top division; they hadn't yet matched their all-time best finish of eighth place, but they're going to crush that mark this season. Thanks to a 13-match winter unbeaten streak, they have just about locked up a fourth-place finish at worst. And they've gotten here, like Stuttgart and Bologna, by playing one hell of a possession game. Led by manager Eric Roy since last January, they are third in Ligue 1 in possession and fourth in total touches. While their attack is above average (fourth in goals scored, though only ninth in xG created), they have, like Bologna, used ball possession as a brilliant defense. They have also played, well, brilliant defense. Aside from perhaps Monaco, they might have the most successfully intense defense in Europe's Big Five leagues. 
(Source: TruMedia)
Most of the teams in the bottom right portion of that chart are bigger-budget teams like PSG, Liverpool, Spurs, Bayern and unbeaten Bayer Leverkusen. Brest has shown more defensive intensity than all of them. Only Nice have allowed fewer goals per possession in Ligue 1, and they tilt the field brilliantly. The secret sauce for Roy and company: relentless fullbacks Bradley Locko and Kenny Lala. Locko is ninth in Ligue 1 in ball recoveries, eighth in 1v1s and sixth in defensive interventions, and in attack he's also 12th in progressive carries and sixth in total touches; Lala is sixth in recoveries and 11th in interventions and also 13th in progressive passes and fourth in touches. Two players basically perform the roles of four. Red flag: A lack of calm All this intensity sometimes turns into frantic play and leaves Brest vulnerable. In an 18-team Ligue 1, they are 13th in high turnovers allowed, 13th in xG per shot allowed and 17th in goals allowed from high turnovers. And when these disasters strike, their general lack of shot quality in attack bites them. Despite the excellent opportunities they've created from high turnovers, Brest rank just 15th in xG per shot. This high-energy, low-shot-quality combo has rendered them all-or-nothing: While they've scored four or more goals in three matches this season, they've also scored one or fewer in 18 of 32. Who are they in danger of losing? While they may benefit from somewhat advanced age -- Roy is 56, Lala is 32, stalwart defensive midfielder Pierre Lees-Melou is 30, and key attacker Romain Del Castillo, who leads the team in both goals and assists, is 28 -- two of their best pieces in the back, Locko (22) and center-back Lilian Brassier (24), could get plucked away. (Every team with any sort of counter-pressing presence should be lusting after Locko in particular.) Considering how important young energy has been to their defensive intensity, losing either would be costly.
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