Let's spare a thought for the Columbus Crew. Wilfried Nancy's team was the wildly popular winner of the 2023 MLS Cup, but despite that goodwill, Major League Soccer's original franchise spent precious little time in the spotlight.
Barely a month after the Crew had bested LAFC to win their third league title, focus turned toward 2024 when Inter Miami CF began its preseason world tour with a trip to El Salvador on Jan. 19. Ever since, the talk has been about Lionel Messi's first full season in the league and whether he and the Herons' star-studded-but-aging squad can manage the demands of MLS' grueling travel schedule.
So, ESPN decided to extend those what-if thoughts to all 29 clubs in 2024: What should they expect from this campaign?
Grab yourself a beverage and a snack and settle in as Ryan O'Hanlon, Jeff Carlisle, Kyle Bonagura, Cesar Hernandez, Arch Bell, Jon Arnold and Megan Swanick give us the lowdown on all 29 MLS teams ahead of the new season.
Will these moves be enough to get Atlanta back to the heights of its MLS Cup triumph in 2018?
While the looming exit of the Argentina U23 standout and World Cup champion has felt imminent for some time, a superb showing at the CONMEBOL Pre-Olympic Tournament over the winter only will coax larger bids from European teams looking to bring in the 22-year-old. Last season, Almada led the league in assists with 19 and added 11 goals. Getting to double digits in both categories is likely again this campaign if he is with Atlanta for the long haul. -- Arnold
The left side of defense was strengthened by Guilherme Biro, who arrives from the Brazilian second division, while at right-back, all signs point toward Danish defender Mikkel Desler joining this summer from Ligue 1's Toulouse.
Austin also picked up some depth at the striker position with Diego Rubio, who scored 16 goals for Colorado in 2022, but suffered through an injury-plagued 2023 campaign.
On the coaching front, there is a new man in charge in Dean Smith, which is wonderfully fitting for a team in Carolina blue considering the legacy left by the Hall of Fame Tar Heels men's basketball coach of the same name.
Perhaps the arrival in Charlotte of manager Smith, who produced impressive attacking results first with Brentford then with Aston Villa before struggling through a number of save-us-please relegation gigs in the Premier League, will boost the offense. With the departure of Swiderski over the offseason, the highest-scoring returning player is Copetti, who chipped in with a grim five non-penalty goals last season. -- O'Hanlon
The Fire also cut ties with Jairo Torres, a DP signing who never came close to living up to that billing, recording no goals and two assists in two seasons. Kacper Przybylko has departed as well, transferred to Swiss side Lugano.
With Cuypers and Acosta on board, the playoffs seem doable, but this is the Fire we're talking about, a team that habitually underachieves. Defensively, there are still some question marks in front of goalkeeper Chris Brady. The team needs another creative threat alongside Brian Gutierrez and Xherdan Shaqiri. -- Carlisle
Without any context: Maybe that's good? With context: That's the 147th-best mark in the league from its third-highest-paid player. -- O'Hanlon
Here is an image from the current Premier League season, plotting each team's points per game with their "field tilt," which is the standard possession statistic but adjusted only for possession in the final third:
In the Premier League, there's a very clear relationship between controlling final-third possession and winning matches. In MLS, there's almost no relationship at all. In fact, the team with the most points last season, Cincinnati, had almost the exact same field tilt as the team with the fewest points, Toronto. So, don't get too worried if Cincy's final third possession is woeful in 2024. -- O'Hanlon
Reigning champions have had it rough ever since the Galaxy won back-to-back MLS Cups in 2011 and 2012. LAFC nearly did the trick last year, only for the Crew to stymie it in the final. Columbus also has Concacaf Champions Cup responsibilities that it didn't have last year, which historically has worn teams down over the course of a long season. Manager Wilfried Nancy has proved to be one of the most astute tacticians and motivators in MLS, though, and he is more than capable of getting the Crew back to the MLS promised land, even amid a packed schedule.
It helps that he has a talented team at his disposal. The midfield duo of Darlington Nagbe and Aidan Morris has the right combination of leather and lace. The backline, led by old Nancy favorite Rudy Camacho, proved stout over the course of the 2023 season. And in Cucho Hernández, Columbus has a striker capable of carrying a team on his own (not that it's likely to come down to that). Expect the Crew to be among the contenders right to the very end. -- Carlisle
And yet, despite undershooting his xG again for D.C. United last season and missing lots of big chances, Benteke still scored 13 non-penalty goals. Only four players in the league scored more. -- O'Hanlon
Biggest offseason move: Undoubtedly, signing Musa. FCD brought in the Croatia forward from Benfica, paying a hefty transfer fee. Musa should boost an attack that will be without Dallas' previous record signing, Argentine attacker Alan Velasco, for most of the season because of a torn ACL.
It's worth remembering too that FCD signed former Real Sociedad midfielder Asier Illarramendi in the summer of 2023, and he quietly was one of the league's best acquisitions in that window.
2024 will be a success if ... Jesús Ferreira returns to, and surpasses, his previous form with Musa in town. Ferreira was asked to shoulder a heavy portion of the attacking load in both 2022 and 2023. He did so in 2022 with 18 goals and six assists in the first campaign after Dallas transferred forward Ricardo Pepi to FC Augsburg but regressed last season with a dozen goals and six assists. It was still a decent return, but it became clear Ferreira needed help. Now, he has it. -- Arnold
One stat to keep in mind: In his two seasons with Benfica, Musa averaged 1.2 non-penalty goals plus assists per 90 minutes. In his 17 seasons with Barcelona, Messi averaged 1.3 non-penalty goals plus assists per 90. Given that Musa is 25 and Messi is 36, should we expect the 6-foot-3 Croatian player to be the most dominant attacker in MLS this season? Not quite.
Most of Musa's playing time at Benfica was as a sub, and subs score and assist at a much higher rate than starters. Plus, he was playing for a team that is way better than almost all of its opponents in the Portuguese league. But still, Musa is in his early prime, and he was incredibly productive for a team that's consistently in the UEFA Champions League. That should translate quite nicely for FC Dallas. -- O'Hanlon
Houston Dynamo
What they've been up to: Ben Olsen's "Bennyball" is back for Year 2 in Space City, but more importantly, Panamanian midfielder Adalberto Carrasquilla is set to return in 2024. Many thought Carrasquilla would leave the club over the winter, but the 25-year-old appears to be in the fold for another season. The departure of little-used DP defender Teenage Hadebe frees up space for a new signing, which will be necessary now that striker Corey Baird has left for FC Cincinnati.
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +1100
Biggest offseason move: Right now, the only signing of note is free agent Jan Gregus, who was previously at Minnesota United. Gregus gives what is already a very good midfield more depth. Sebastián Ferreira has returned from his loan at Vasco da Gama in Brazil and, in the words of general manager Pat Onstad, will be the starting striker.
2024 will be a success if ... Ferreira can at least make up for the eight goals and six assists that walked out the door with Baird. What the Dynamo need, like so many other teams, is a No. 9 who can bang home some goals. Houston is good enough that it can wait until the summer, when the global transfer market will be more cooperative, to ink a deal for one and still be competitive to finish in the top four in the conference. -- Bell
One stat to keep in mind: After a relatively quiet debut season, Héctor Herrera was perhaps the best midfielder in MLS last season. He attempted more passes than all but one other player in the league, ranked fourth in progressive passes and created more assists than all but two other players in MLS.
Usually, a midfielder will rack up a lot of passes in a safe way, play a lot of forward passes or create chances for his teammates. Herrera did all three -- to an unsustainable degree.
Herrera's 11 assists came from 5.7 expected goals assisted -- the largest positive gap in the league last season. For a deeper midfielder, that 5.7 xG number is still fantastic; it just ranks 21st in the league, rather than third. -- O'Hanlon
Inter Miami CF
What it's been up to: Miami spent the offseason embarking on a "Planes, Trains and Automobiles" tour of Asia and Central America, which came at a cost. Winger Facundo Farías suffered a season-ending torn ACL, while Benjamin Cremaschi will miss two to three months because of a sports hernia. Meanwhile, Messi and Sergio Busquets both sustained injuries, although they should be ready to start the season.
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +162
Biggest offseason move: Miami continued its quest of getting the Barcelona band back together, signing former Blaugrana striker Luis Suárez, most recently of Gremio, to join Messi, Busquets and Jordi Alba. A more unheralded signing is that of free agent midfielder Julian Gressel who, fresh off helping the Columbus Crew win MLS Cup, gives Miami plenty of positional versatility. Defender Nicolás Freire has been brought in to help offset the loss of Kamal Miller, who joined the Portland Timbers.
Midfielder Gregore completed a move to Botafogo in Brazil on Monday to help Miami balance the books.
2024 will be a success if ... Messi can stay healthy. Everything else -- regular-season success, trophies won -- flows from that. If the Argentine player can maintain his fitness, the Herons will be as formidable as their reputation would indicate.
If not, well, Miami's record without Messi last year in the regular season was just 1-2-3. That said, the Herons do seem a bit deeper than they were last year, and a full preseason with manager Tata Martino should result in more cohesion on the field. But thanks to the departure of Miller (and potentially Gregore), lots of questions persist about the team's defense.
Can Miami address its issues defending in transition? It will need to if it is going to live up to the sky-high expectations surrounding the squad. -- Carlisle
One stat to keep in mind: Per the estimates on FBref, Messi will make $12 million while playing for Inter Miami this season. That's a massive pay cut from the $70 million per year -- yes, you read that right, $70 million annually -- he made while playing for Paris Saint-Germain. But Messi's salary in Miami is still more than the entire payroll for all but five other teams in MLS.
The expectations couldn't be higher for Miami to become the best team MLS has ever seen, but a deeper analysis shows that is unlikely to happen. -- O'Hanlon
LAFC
What it's been up to: The Black and Gold will look much different after the departures -- for a variety of reasons -- of Kellyn Acosta, Diego Palacios, Maxime Crépeau and Giorgio Chiellini, among others, but ambitions remain high. Carlos Vela also has not re-signed with the team, but discussions to bring him back are ongoing, and he could return early in the season.
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +400
Biggest offseason move: World Cup-winning goalkeeper Hugo Lloris joins the club after 11 seasons with Tottenham Hotspur, but LAFC's most important offseason acquisition is the return of Eduard Atuesta. The midfielder was one of the best players in MLS during parts of four previous seasons with LAFC (2018-21) and is back -- on loan, with an option for a permanent transfer -- after being transferred to Palmeiras in Brazil after the 2021 season.
2024 will be a success if ... LAFC wins a trophy. Pick one: MLS Cup, Supporters' Shield, Leagues Cup, U.S. Open Cup. After reaching the MLS Cup final and Concacaf Champions League final but coming up short in both instances, LAFC was held trophyless in 2023. It was a good season, but it still fell short of the standard the club has set, having won MLS Cup and the Supporters' Shield the year before. -- Bonagura
One stat to keep in mind: Since the 2018 season, LAFC's goalkeepers have allowed eight goals more than expected, per Stats Perform's post-shot xG model. In his final six seasons with Spurs, Lloris saved 16.3 goals more than expected.
At 37, does he have enough left in the tank to give LAFC the one thing it has never had: an elite shot-stopper? -- O'Hanlon
LA Galaxy
What they've been up to: The Galaxy's front office has been retooled in the hope that it translates into better results on the field. Team president Chris Klein was ousted last season after a fan boycott and a history of poor results. Now, that has extended to longtime technical director Jovan Kirovski, while Greg Vanney's role will be exclusively managing the first team after his GM duties were handed to former LAFC executive Will Kuntz.
With the once-proud organization missing the playoffs for the fifth time in the past seven seasons, getting the Galaxy back to their winning ways will be an immense challenge.
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +1100
Biggest offseason move: Kuntz revamped the Galaxy's roster. He jettisoned the underperforming Douglas Costa and the injured Javier Hernandez. Kuntz brought in winger Gabriel Pec from Brazilian side Vasco da Gama. Pec is expected to complement the play of attacking midfielder Riqui Puig and forward Dejan Joveljic.
Kuntz also has acquired Japan international defender Miki Yamane, while goalkeeper John McCarthy arrives from crosstown rivals LAFC.
2024 will be a success if ... The Galaxy can clean up their defense. Yes, that's a low bar after conceding a league-worst 67 goals in 2023. The return of holding midfielder Gastón Brugman from knee surgery last season should help, although he might not be ready to be in the starting XI when the season starts. Another injury casualty in center back Martín Cáceres is further along. Center back Jalen Neal, a year wiser after getting his first minutes in the starting XI, should improve, and Maya Yoshida should be better acclimated to MLS after arriving last summer.
Pec's arrival means Kuntz has one more DP card to play. Another attacker to play off Pec, Puig and Joveljic seems to be Kuntz's next move, with the Galaxy heavily linked to a move for Genk winger Joseph Paintsil. If Kuntz can pull that off, then maybe the Galaxy can begin to be a force in the league again. -- Carlisle
One stat to keep in mind: Last season, Puig led the league in both progressive passes (346) and progressive carries (158).
At 23, Puig might be the most dominant in-possession midfielder the league has ever seen. What will happen to the Galaxy if they lose their ball-progressing powerhouse for an extended period of time? -- O'Hanlon
Minnesota United
What it's been up to: Minnesota fired coach Adrian Heath in October and gave Sean McAuley the interim role, and by January, it announced that Cameron Knowles was the new interim coach after McAuley pursued a new opportunity through Indy Eleven. The clock is ticking on new sporting director and chief soccer officer Khaled El-Ahmad (who arrived in the Twin Cities less than a month ago) to make a permanent hire.
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +2000
Biggest offseason move: Twenty-two-year-old Costa Rica international midfielder Alejandro Bran is an interesting addition, although we should definitely highlight a new central defender that the club is calling their "Swedish Viking." At 6-foot-4, Victor Eriksson is set to bolster the squad that failed to qualify for the playoffs in 2023.
2024 will be a success if ... It becomes a dark horse. Regardless of its lack of a permanent coach, Minnesota has enough talent to return to the playoffs. For a team that can continue to count on Emanuel Reynoso and Teemu Pukki in the final third, a postseason invitation should be within reach. -- Hernandez
One stat to keep in mind: Keep an eye out for 23-year-old South African forward Bongokuhle Hlongwane. Last season, he scored eight goals from 15 expected -- the third biggest negative gap in the league.
Here are his shots last season; the bigger the circle, the higher the xG of the attempt:
Some more of those massive purple dots are likely to turn into goals this season.
On top of that: American Soccer Analysis created a stat called Goals Added (G+) that sums up all the value created by a player's on-ball actions. In last season's Leagues Cup, the leader in G+ was not Lionel Messi. He was second, behind Hlongwane. -- O'Hanlon
CF Montreal
What it's been up to: Changing a lot of things around; it is Montreal, after all. After losing manager Wilfried Nancy to the Columbus Crew and watching him guide the men in yellow to a title in his first year there, Montreal is trying to capture some of that magic by bringing in Laurent Courtois as manager. The former Chivas USA midfielder had been with the Crew's developmental second team for the past two seasons, but he now steps into his first job at the helm of a first team.
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +2200
Biggest offseason move: Courtois is getting some new attacking players to work with, as Montreal moved for a pair of forwards with very different profiles. MLS veteran Josef Martínez arrives in Quebec as a hardened veteran, with 110 MLS goals to his name. Matías Cóccaro, a 26-year-old Uruguayan player, arrives with no goals under his belt outside of South America but off a great spell with Argentine club Huracán. If both strikers are able to contribute, that would be great news for Courtois and his staff.
2024 will be a success if ... The team can return to the playoffs. The potential is there, but beyond having a rookie coach, there are plenty of question marks about the team as it is currently constructed. -- Arnold
One stat to keep in mind: Across a mostly sterling MLS career, Martínez has averaged 0.64 non-penalty goals per game -- or slightly above what Cristiano Ronaldo produced in his handful of seasons with Juventus. Last season, though, Martínez's scoring rate plummeted down to 0.26 non-penalty goals per 90 despite, you know, sharing the field with Messi, Busquets and Alba for a chunk of the season.
Martinez turned 30 in May and joined Montreal this offseason. Did he finally hit the cliff? -- O'Hanlon
Nashville SC
What it's been up to: Months after stumbling in the first round of the 2023 MLS Cup playoffs, Nashville has shaken things up with some noteworthy exits (Dax McCarty and Fafà Picault) and additions (Dru Yearwood, Amar Sejdic and Tyler Boyd) during the winter. Now entering its fifth MLS season and still led by two-time All-Star Hany Mukhtar, the Music City side will hope to recreate the magic that led to a spot in last summer's Leagues Cup final.
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +1200
Biggest offseason move: Boyd looks set to be a key figure in the attack and a source of support for Mukhtar in the final third. The winger's distribution and speed will be vital for the team that scored just 39 times in 34 regular-season matches last year.
2024 will be a success if ... It qualifies for the conference finals for the first time. We'll see how things go in the Concacaf Champions Cup and Leagues Cup, but in MLS play, Nashville's main goal should be aiming for that place among the final four in the playoffs. -- Hernandez
One stat to keep in mind: The average prime years of soccer roughly come between 24 and 28. Across the age of all your players, you want the average to be somewhere in that four-year band. If you're closer to 24, it means your team has the potential for an exponential jump in performance as multiple players get better at once. If you're toward the tail end, you're taking a risk, but it also means that the majority of your players are hitting their peaks at the same time.
Nashville, however, were well beyond the threshold last year, averaging 29.2 years, per FBref, when weighted by minutes played. While McCarty departed this offseason, there seems to be an obsession with older players in Nashville. As Eliot McKinley pointed out at American Soccer Analysis, the club has started a player below the age of 21 just once in the history of the franchise. -- O'Hanlon
New England Revolution
What they've been up to: A pair of smart decisions have the Revolution set up nicely for a rebound in 2024. Talented attacker Tomás Chancalay was made a permanent signing after arriving on loan last year, and MLS Cup-winning coach Caleb Porter has taken the reins after what was a dysfunctional 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
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Biggest offseason move: The Revs splashed the cash to bring in goalkeeper Henrich Ravas from Polish club Widzew Lodz, paying a $1.2 million transfer fee for their new No. 1. New England also added depth on the defensive line in the form of full-back Nick Lima, who is coming off three solid seasons in Austin, and center back Jonathan Mensah.
2024 will be a success if ... The Revs are a contender in the heavily competitive Eastern Conference. Making Chancalay a permanent signing was a wise move. Carles Gil is still a maestro in midfield, and rising young winger Dylan Borrero is nearing full health from a torn ACL tear.
The No. 9 spot is an uncertainty, though. Giacomo Vrioni has never lived up to the hype, but if Porter can get the best out of him, then there will be plenty of optimism in New England. Or the Revolution could hunt for one in the transfer market. Either way, with production from the center forward spot, the Revs can win MLS Cup. -- Bell
One stat to keep in mind: Since 2018, there have been 31 individual seasons during which a goalkeeper saved at least four goals more than expected in MLS. Six of those seasons were by New England Revolution keepers. Matt Turner reeled off four of those seasons in a row, looked like the best keeper in MLS history, became the undisputed starter for the U.S. men's team and transferred to Arsenal. Then Djordje Petrovic came in and was even better; he prevented an absurd 19 goals above average over much of the past two seasons before moving to Chelsea last summer.
Despite six straight seasons of incredible goalkeeping, the Revs averaged only the 11th-most points in MLS over the stretch. Will the bottom fall out if the goalkeeping becomes merely average? -- O'Hanlon
New York City FC
What it's been up to: Missing the playoffs for the first time since its 2015 debut season, NYCFC is aiming to avoid the mess of 2023 through early signings in the new year. Of the latest additions, attacking players Agustin Ojeda and Hannes Wolf are the most intriguing, along with Serbian striker Jovan Mijatovic.
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +1200
Biggest offseason move: Nineteen-year-old Ojeda is one to follow, though an older player such as Wolf might be able to make a more immediate impact. With a handful of Bundesliga seasons under his belt, the 24-year-old winger should have little trouble adjusting to the pace and physicality of MLS.
2024 will be a success if ... It is back in the playoff mix. If so, that's a big step in the right direction for the youthful team that has a higher ceiling. NYCFC fans should feel optimistic. -- Hernandez
One stat to keep in mind: From 2018 through 2022, NYCFC scored more goals and created more expected goals than any team in the Eastern Conference. Across the whole league, only LAFC did more of both. Then last year happened.
The bigger the circle, the higher the xG value of the shot:
In 2023, 23 teams scored more non-penalty goals (34) and 20 created more non-penalty xG (40.7) than NYCFC. This was the second-youngest team in the league last year weighted by minutes played (24.3), it underperformed its xG and it allowed the second-fewest non-penalty xG.
Given all of that, and given the club's historical attacking success, NYCFC seems like a good bet to bounce back this season. -- O'Hanlon
New York Red Bulls
What they've been up to: The Red Bulls have hired a new coach in Germany-born Sandro Schwarz, who was fired from now-relegated Hertha Berlin early in 2023. They've also brought in a new sporting director in Julian de Guzman, the first Canadian player to compete in LaLiga. Equipped with fresh leadership, the Red Bulls have collected a respectable run of results in preseason friendlies (drawing Austin FC, St. Louis City and Chicago Fire while defeating New England 3-0). And they shed deadweight from their roster by offloading at least one of their two unproductive DPs from last season: Luquinhas.
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +800
Biggest offseason move: Hope resides with New York's biggest offseason acquisition: 32-year-old Sweden international Emil Forsberg. He brings a wealth of experience as a creative midfield force for RB Leipzig and a four-time winner of Sweden's midfielder of the year prize from among his 86 caps and 21 goals with the Blue and Yellow.
2024 will be a success if ... Forsberg proves to be the creative contributor that he has been globally, and with that impact, new manager Schwarz gets more out of the Red Bulls' attack.
In 2023, a generous spread of the Red Bulls' roster contributed a goal here or a goal there, but the team suffered through that season with no true, reliable goal scorer. Their top contributor across all competitions, Red Bulls' homegrown Omir Fernandez, tallied only eight goals total (six in the regular season) to claim that spot before departing for the Colorado Rapids this offseason.
If Schwarz can build on their strong defensive unit with a more dynamic attack, using the addition of Forsberg and getting more from striker Dante Vanzeir, then the Red Bulls seem assured to keep their postseason record alive. -- Swanick
One stat to keep in mind: Nearly every season, the American arm of the energy drink conglomerate's global network of soccer teams ranks dead last in two specific statistics: average age (weighted by minutes played) and pass completion percentage. In 2023, the Red Bulls were once again the youngest team (23.8 years) and once again completed the lowest percentage of their passes (70.2).
Youth and vertical passing, that's Red Bulls ball, no matter where you are. -- O'Hanlon
Orlando City
What it's been up to: Oscar Pareja has quietly built Orlando City into one of the better teams in MLS, hovering below the radar in the state of Florida thanks to the splashy state of affairs roughly 200 miles to the south.
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +1000
Biggest offseason move: Duncan McGuire's announced six-month loan to Blackburn Rovers that fell apart was certainly the most intriguing roster news of the offseason, with McGuire returning to Orlando City, at least for the time being. On Thursday, the club announced the arrival of Colombian forward Luis Muriel as a DP from Atalanta who should make an immediate impact in MLS.
2024 will be a success if ... It ends with silverware in the cabinet. Last year, Orlando City finished second in the Supporters' Shield standings with the best team it has ever fielded but was unable to find much success in the knockout stages of the season (MLS playoffs, U.S. Open Cup, Leagues Cup). Any piece of hardware this year would qualify as success, but it should be noted that the heightened expectations is a significant step forward for a club that has been mostly irrelevant since joining the league in 2015. -- Bonagura
One stat to keep in mind: Over the previous 365 days, Muriel ranks in the 99th percentile among all forwards across Europe's "Big Five" leagues in the following per-90-minute stats: non-penalty expected goals plus assists, shot-creating actions, progressive passes and successful passes. He only ranked in the 98th percentile for progressive passes received and the 96th percentile for progressive carries.
Provided he stays healthy, Muriel should be in the MVP conversation this season. -- O'Hanlon
Philadelphia Union
What they've been up to: The Union's record-breaking year in 2022 was followed by a so-so one in '23. Still among the east coast's strongest contenders, the Boys in Blue failed to make amends for 2022's MLS Cup heartbreak in 2023, as they fought through more than 50 games chasing five different trophies and came away with nothing to show for it.
In 2024 (much as they did in '23) the Union are running it back with more or less the same squad. With 2022's MLS Coach of the Year Jim Curtin at the helm (the second-longest-tenured manager in the league), Philly's most notable offseason movement has been the re-signing of two veterans that spent the latter end of last season at loggerheads with the front office.
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +800
Biggest offseason move: Thirty-six-year-old longtime captain and beloved midfielder Alejandro Bedoya returns on a one-year contract with an expanded role, adding yet another season to his 214 club appearances. In addition to any on-field duties, Bedoya will serve as "player development and front office specialist." Equally notable is the return of German left-back Kai Wagner, who often has been considered the best in MLS at his position.
2024 will be a success if ... They find stability in squad depth and get more from their forwards beyond Julián Carranza.
The task before Curtin will be a familiar one from last year. Thanks to their semifinal Leagues Cup finish in 2023 (losing abysmally to Messi's Inter Miami), they'll start 2024 competing in Concacaf Champions Cup, straddling multiple competitions and travel. The Union will be successful this time around if they prove capable of the depth that escaped them last year. They'll also need to get more from Danish DP striker Mikkel Uhre, hope newly acquired Israeli forward Tai Baribo comes good on his potential and/or bring in more attacking reinforcements considering Carranza's potential for a transfer abroad. -- Swanick
One stat to keep in mind: With 55 points and a plus-16 goal differential, the Union were once again one of the best regular-season teams in MLS. But there are at least a couple of warning signs under the hood.
To start, they turned a plus-5.3 xG differential into that plus-16 actual goal differential. And beyond the vagaries of finishing, they benefited from two areas that are either outside of a team's control or completely volatile from year to year: They won 11 penalties, two more than any other team in the league, and they saw seven opponent red cards, tied for most in the league. -- O'Hanlon
Portland Timbers
What they've been up to: Putting together a roster. Phil Neville has stepped into the Timbers' dugout after seven years of Giovanni Savarese's stewardship. Along with Savarese, who was let go during last season, Sebastián Blanco, Yimmi Chará and Franck Boli are among players who decamped in the winter.
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Biggest offseason move: Neville and the front office clearly are looking to have a solid base at the back, including signing former LAFC goalkeeper Maxime Crépeau. After he helped backstop the California club to the double in 2022, an injury in the MLS Cup final saw him supplanted last season. He'll be eager to reclaim starting status in Portland.
2024 will be a success if ... A winning culture is implemented. This is a team used to having success. But last year's playoff miss and a trophy drought dating back to the 2020 MLS is Back tournament -- and to the 2015 MLS Cup before that -- necessitated a refresh.
Notably, the Timbers were miserable away from home, registering two victories on the road. Neville will need to get his team to a place where it can earn points without the backing of the Timbers Army if his debut season is going to go down as a success. -- Arnold
One stat to keep in mind: Across the Stats Perform database, which extends back to 2012, there are 38 MLS managers who've coached at least 80 games. Neville's teams have produced a per-game non-penalty xG differential of minus-0.45, while no other coach is below minus-0.27.
A related fact: The Timbers hired Neville to be their manager this offseason, for some reason. -- O'Hanlon
Real Salt Lake
What it's been up to: Coach Pablo Mastroeni parted with a few members of his staff, and a few goal scorers have left, most notably Venezuela forward Jefferson Savarino, who provided eight goals and six assists in the regular season as last year's top contributor. American winger Danny Musovski also departed, for the Seattle Sounders, after contributing five goals and four assists for Real Salt Lake in 2023.
According to Mastroeni, RSL plans to capitalize on those changes by evolving the team's identity. In an interview with CBS, Mastroeni said that this season he wants his squad to take the game to their opponent: "We're changing things up tactically. We want to be a team that really imposes ourselves on the game ... I think tactically you're going to see a different team."
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +1600
Biggest offseason move: RSL's offseason acquisitions won't put the Western Conference on notice, although a few could certainly work their way into starting roles and contribute to Mastroeni's evolved team identity. The most notable include English midfielder Matt Crooks, picked up from Championship side Middlesbrough, where he scored 23 goals and notched 15 assists in 115 appearances, as well as the 25-year-old Greek left-back Alexandros Katranis, signed from Polish side Piast Gliwice.
2024 will be a success if ... The tactics do evolve, and Mastroeni's squad stays healthy.
Should RSL's dynamic Argentine playmaker Pablo Ruiz (who injured a meniscus last summer and just returned to the pitch) and Colombian striker, Chicho Arango (who missed a few games at the end of last season with muscle injury) stay healthy, continued success seems likely in Utah. They'll have some dependable talent to surround them, including U.S. youth international Diego Luna, who impressed last season at just 20 years old, as well as Colombian midfielder Andrés Gómez. -- Swanick
One stat to keep in mind: If you like watching long, sideline-to-sideline passes, then this is your team. Last season, the average MLS side attempted 149 switches of play, while Real Salt Lake led the league with 250 switches attempted. In fact, three RSL players -- midfielder Braian Ojeda and defenders Brayan Vera and Justen Glad -- ranked in the top 10 for switches played. No other team had more than one in the top 10.
The question for Mastroeni's side, though, is whether it can turn its singular style into success. Despite constantly shifting the opponent vertically, RSL only created the 12th-most non-penalty xG in the league last year. -- O'Hanlon
San Jose Earthquakes
What they've been up to: The Earthquakes are attempting to fill in the holes on their roster in order to build on last year's playoffs appearance. Breaking out of their bottom-half-of-the-table funk has been a struggle for San Jose for more than a decade.
Quakes GM Chris Leitch has made several signings, but whether they pan out is anybody's guess. Manager Luchi Gonzalez is still operating at a talent deficit.
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +2000
Biggest offseason move: The long-awaited transfer of Cade Cowell to Liga MX side Chivas de Guadalajara finally went through for a reported $4 million transfer fee.
The offseason had been painfully quiet in terms of new arrivals until the past two weeks. Leitch completed the signing of Bodø/Glimt winger Amahl Pellegrino, who was a prolific scorer in Norway's Eliteserien with 49 goals in 56 league appearances. Anything remotely approaching that strike rate would be welcome and take pressure of Cristian Espinoza on the opposite wing. Also arriving are a pair of Portuguese league veterans in center back Bruno Wilson of Vizela and left-back Vítor Costa of Maritimo.
2024 will be a success if ... The Quakes can make the playoffs for a second consecutive year, something they haven't managed since the team's heyday in 2004 and 2005.
San Jose does have some decent players on its roster. Espinoza had a stellar season in 2023, with 13 goals and as many assists. Jeremy Ebobisse remains a force at the center forward spot. Brazilian player Daniel garnered strong Goalkeeper of the Year consideration and, along with Rodrigues, sparked a massive defensive improvement.
However, there remains a hole at the attacking midfield spot. Could this be the year that highly rated youngsters Niko Tsakiris or Cruz Medina break out? It's possible, but it also is a lot to ask of players who are still teenagers, which is why Jack Skahan may get some run at that spot.
All of these players were good for ninth place in the Western Conference last year. Only the league's increasingly generous postseason format meant that the Quakes were a playoff team. It's possible that the squad can coalesce around another season of "Luchi Ball," but returning to the postseason is by no means a gimme. -- Carlisle
One stat to keep in mind: Although St. Louis City's Roman Bürki won Goalkeeper of the Year, San Jose's Daniel led the league in goals saved above average per 90 minutes with 0.34. Orange are goals, and each circle is sized by the xG value of the shots Daniel faced:
Put another way, compared to the average MLS goalkeeper, Daniel was saving an extra goal's worth of shots every three matches. -- O'Hanlon
Seattle Sounders
What they've been up to: Aside from opening up their impressive new headquarters, the Sounders made headlines with the addition of 23-year-old Argentine winger Pedro de la Vega. The newcomer already has been given the No. 10 shirt before a single minute with the team. No pressure there.
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +750
Biggest offseason move: Despite the difficulty in saying farewell to club legend Nicolás Lodeiro, who joined Orlando City, the signing of De la Vega should do plenty to help ease the pain. With experience at the youth international level for Argentina, the player who reportedly cost the Sounders an eye-catching $7.5 million transfer fee has lofty expectations to meet.
The signing of striker Danny Musovski is also one to keep an eye on.
2024 will be a success if ... They become title contenders once again. Looking at their roster, they have the right players to build off of their conference semifinal exit in last season's MLS Cup playoffs. A quick transition of De la Vega into a regular and reliable member of the XI would be a small but important success, as well. -- Hernandez
One stat to keep in mind: Although the Sounders led the league in non-penalty xG differential last season, they lost both Lodeiro and Héber over the offseason. They're each in their 30s, so the timing is right, but Lodeiro ranked third on the team in total non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists last season, while Héber was one spot below in fourth. That's a ton of production to replace from season to season.
One of the bets Seattle made in response was the signing of De la Vega. So far in his career, de la Vega has been an exciting dribbler -- and that's it. In his last full season in Argentina, he ranked 76th in non-penalty xG+xA per 90 minutes among all players who featured in at least 30 minutes per game. -- O'Hanlon
Sporting Kansas City
What it's been up to: It was a bizarre 2023 in Kansas City. SKC had an epically bad start, failing to win for 10 weeks, then found a way to charge up the standings and make the playoffs, where they won a play-in match and knocked off No. 1 seed St. Louis City. While SKC couldn't get past the Houston Dynamo, the foundations for an MLS Cup run are clearly there. At least, that's what Sporting is hoping for, without making any big splashes in the transfer market this winter.
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +1200
Biggest offseason move: Gadi Kinda left for Maccabi Haifa, a loss that Kansas City will feel, but Memo Rodriguez joined in the midfield. That's more or less it, other than the team declining contract options on beloved-but-aging veterans Graham Zusi and Roger Espinoza.
2024 will be a success if ... The attackers avoid injuries, allowing SKC more consistency. When Alan Pulido is on the field, he's clinical, with 14 goals and six assists in more than 2,400 minutes last season. His injury history, though, puts in doubt on whether the 32-year-old will once again be able to start 25-plus matches.
The same could be said of some of Sporting's other attacking talents. Winger Dániel Sallói has missed several preseason contests, although word is he'll be ready for the campaign. Even so, the lack of depth up top has to be concerning for a team that has been bit by the injury bug before. -- Arnold
One stat to keep in mind: Since 2012, SKC has produced a negative goal difference just three times. All three have occurred in the past five seasons, though, and they've been on the negative side of the ledger in each of the past two campaigns.
Last year, SKC benefited from a cushy first-round playoff matchup against a St. Louis City team that was scoring and conceding goals way above and below what would be considered reasonably sustainable levels. A dominant 6-2 postseason victory over its new rivals might have papered over the reality in Kansas City: One of MLS's model franchises could be headed in the wrong direction. -- O'Hanlon
St. Louis City SC
What it's been up to: St. Louis City had a Cinderella-story start to its tenure in Major League Soccer, ending its inaugural year with a first-in-the-West finish and landing fourth in the Supporters' Shield race. While a total slump seems unlikely, the underlying numbers might restore some reality to the first-year tear, as STL drastically overperformed its expected goal differential in 2023. And apart from the departures of Nicholas Gioacchini to Serie B side Como and Jared Stroud to D.C. United, Bradley Carnell's side is largely unchanged for Year 2.
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +1200
Biggest offseason move: STL's most notable offseason acquisitions are a pair of full-backs. Left-back Nikolas Dyhr joins from FC Midtjylland in the Danish Superliga and Norwegian-American right-back Tomas Totland arrives from Swedish side BK Hacken.
2024 will be a success if ... Although its second year might fall short of first place in the West, St. Louis City will be successful if it shapes up defensively and perhaps eventually makes use of its available DP spot and if Carnell keeps his team ticking within its clear, exciting style of play while sharpening execution in each phase of the game. -- Swanick
One stat to keep in mind: Somebody sound the regression alarm! In its first season in MLS, St. Louis City scored 16.4 more goals than expected and conceded nine goals fewer than expected -- both, by far, the largest gaps in the league. Put another way, STL had the second-worst expected goal differential in the Western Conference -- and it still won the Western Conference.
Barring transformational changes, I'd expect a big drop-off in the franchise's second MLS season. -- O'Hanlon
Toronto FC
What it's been up to: With both Bob and Michael Bradley now in Norway, the spirited former manager of the Canadian women and men's national teams, John Herdman, will try his hand at the league's high-spending dud of a club in 2024. Herdman has yet to make massive movements as far as roster changes go (to put it lightly). Despite the club's best efforts or intentions, Herdman has been hamstrung, finding it difficult to bring in the targeted players Toronto FC might have liked.
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +4000
Biggest offseason move: Its most notable offseason acquisitions thus far is Trinidadian striker Tyrese Spicer, the No. 1 selection in the 2024 MLS SuperDraft, and Honduran midfielder Deybi Flores, who joins from the Hungarian side Fehérvár FC. Neither will be season-shifting additions, although the hope for Herdman is that they might grow into an evolving squad.
2024 will be a success if ... Herdman works miracles with a club of disinterested stars. Overall, a talented-but-expensive team returns under the tutelage of a different gaffer at the start of the new year. With two cumbersome, marquee Italian stars returning -- Insigne and Bernardeschi -- Toronto will be successful if Herdman can reshape and reinvigorate their previous outputs, somehow altering the course of their insufficient contributions thus far. -- Swanick
One stat to keep in mind: According to FBref, Bernardeschi and Insigne are two of nine players in MLS making at least $3 million this season. Last year, the pair combined for eight non-penalty goals and six assists ... total.
Unless TFC gets way more out of its marquee players, it is going to be another long year in Toronto. -- O'Hanlon
Vancouver Whitecaps
What they've been up to: Unfortunately for the Whitecaps, midfielder Richie Laryea will not be back in the fold, returning to Nottingham Forest after his loan in British Columbia ended, while two other exits came from forward Simon Becher and midfielder Caio Alexandre, who were transferred away.
Unlike most teams in MLS, Vancouver already has some official games under its belt, against Tigres in the Concacaf Champions Cup, so it will hit the ground running to start the MLS season.
ESPN BET odds to win MLS Cup: +1600
Biggest offseason move: Forward Damir Kreilach joined as a free agent, and he already is impressing by scoring against Tigres. Fafà Picault is another attacking player who has been added to the mix, and he also showed well in Champions Cup. The defense was firmed up with the signing of center backs Bjørn Inge Utvik and Belal Halbouni. Contract extensions for forward Ryan Gauld and defender Tristan Blackmon were good business.
2024 will be a success if ... Gauld and Brian White can duplicate their 26 goals and 17 assists in 2023, and if Vancouver can add another attacking player into the mix, along with Kreilach. With Laryea not coming back, that means there is still help needed at the wing-back position, but overall, Vancouver has the goods to fight for a top-four finish in the conference. -- Bell
One stat to keep in mind: Last season, only nine players in MLS generated at least 10 non-penalty expected goals, and only four generated at least 10 expected goals assisted. Vancouver was the only team with a player on both lists, thanks to White's 15.5 xG and Gauld's 10 xA. In fact, half of Gauld's 12 actual assists on the season led to goals from White. Powered by the league's most dynamic duo, the Whitecaps created the second-most non-penalty xG in the Western Conference last season. -- O'Hanlon
