Australia's 2022 World Cup campaign has come to an end. A remarkable and inexplicable journey of twists, turns, and that now immortal catchphrase of "Aussie DNA" at the end of its confounding road. Fittingly, this mad journey, born from a group operating far beyond the sum of their parts, eventually needed Argentina -- a team that may end up as champions, led by one of the greatest ever in Lionel Messi -- to bring about its conclusion. And Messi's men were forced to earn it.
The Socceroos arrived in Qatar with expectations that they were easybeats, someone that would easily be brushed aside and finish bottom of Group D. And when they lost 4-1 to France in their opening game those predictions appeared to be on the money.
But then a recovery came, as did wins against Tunisia and Denmark. Progression to the last 16 followed, alongside setting new records for points, wins, goals, and clean sheets in a single campaign. Yes, they'd received a reality brick to the face when coming up against France, but when you're triumphing over Tunisia and Denmark, pushing Argentina to the limit in the knockout stages, and lasting longer than the likes of Germany, Belgium, and Uruguay, things can't be said to be going bad.
Admittedly, it does need to be acknowledged there was a healthy serving of luck in this. Graham Arnold's side were outshot by a 2-to-1 margin, had the second-worst xG differential (per match), and completed the second-fewest percentage of passes of the 32 teams in the group stages.
Yet footballers will be the first to tell you that the harder you work, the luckier you get, and the Socceroos' defensive efforts ensured that many of the shots they faced were of a low quality. On Saturday evening, Argentina would only manage two shots in Australia's penalty area, both goals, until the Socceroos broke their defensive structure in search of an equaliser.
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But attempts to absorb and scrutinise in circumstances like a World Cup are forever torn between the duelling masters of results-, performance-, and vibes-based analysis. International football is the emotional and spiritual peak of the game and the World Cup is its ultimate realisation. Any achievement for a nation like Australia should be savoured. Football is about emotions, it's supposed to be fun.
Perhaps it's just a case of learning to stop worrying and love "Arnie-ball."
And really, under Arnold, playing these players in his system and under his ethos, this was probably as good as it possibly could have got: dogged determination, kilometres of hard running, desperate defending, and swift counter-attacks all executed by a group wholly committed to the cause, each other, and their manager. They got the goals they needed and, by hook or by crook, they held on.
There wasn't an air that much had changed from qualifying, just that the circumstances of playing better, more ball-dominant teams provided a more suitable platform for the pragmatic coach to find success. But anyone expecting free-flowing, possession-dominant tiki-taka football, at this point in the journey, should enquire about a bridge over Sydney Harbour that's for sale.
Promisingly, for a significant chunk of this squad, Qatar will represent just the start of their experiences at the World Cup with nine players aged 24 years and under. Arnold's "quick fix" assumption of the Olyroos job may have been to address a short-term need, but it will bolster the national team for years to come. Harry Souttar, in particular, has become one of the breakout stars of this tournament and has almost certainly played his way into a major move shortly, be it in January or at the end of Stoke City's season -- the shop window that is the World Cup potentially supercharging his career.
Of course, for the six players in the squad over the age of 30 it may prove their last World Cup. But with the strong youth contingent in the current squad, and players such as Denis Genreau and Connor Metcalfe amongst the 32 debutants cross the past cycle, there exists a promising batch of players about to enter their physical primes waiting in the wings.
Thus, perhaps the biggest question facing Football Australia as it heads into this new era is who it will entrust with leading the Socceroos into it? The administration has already confirmed that a review set to be undertaken in the coming weeks and presented to the board in the new year.
Arnold's contract officially ended when the final whistle blew on the defeat to Argentina, and while he has expressed a desire to return to the role in the past, he's also been repeatedly evasive when pressed on his plans. In Doha, all the coach has been willing to divulge is that regardless of what happens with his employment, he will need a break after the World Cup and that he's looking forward to having his future in his own hands. At one point he even teased writing a book about the qualification journey.
Reports have linked the coach to club jobs in both the United States and Asia -- Arnold has praised the quality of Major League Soccer in previous media appearances -- and, as the most successful coach in A-League Men history, he would likely be a hot commodity back in Australia.
It also can't be discounted that the 59-year-old may choose to ride out into the sunset with his newfound sense of autonomy. Certainly, it's difficult to see how he tops this World Cup campaign in the years ahead. The past four and a half years of qualifying can be generously described as being hellacious -- Arnold, in a similar vein to the before and afters of US Presidents, is showing visible signs of fatigue at the end of his four-year term.
But delving further into hypotheticals, and if Arnold does indeed want to return, there are key questions surrounding the possibility that need to be addressed by Football Australia in their deliberations.
First, has the 59-year-old shown enough in his four-and-a-half years as a collective resume to merit another go-around during the 2024 cycle? It's important to note that while the past fortnight has been a ride, a demarcation needs to come between enjoying the World Cup in a vacuum and examining it through the prism of being just a part of a four-and-a-half-year journey, one that now must be decided if it will stretch to eight.
Beyond a round-of-16 berth that, obviously, will weigh heavily on the federation -- it has to, it's a remarkable achievement -- the team environment that has been constructed by Arnold is a strong one, and he engineered a world-record 11-game winning streak in qualification. He knows the national team setup, knows the players coming through, and ostensibly would expect himself to build on this run and deliver more in 2026.
However, that winning streak followed a quarterfinal exit at the Asian Cup and was largely sourced against some of the weaker sides in Asia, allowing for the cracks in the Socceroos' approach to be papered over. These weaknesses were then ruthlessly exploited when it came time to face better teams in the later stages of qualification and, as mentioned, the principles of play in Qatar don't appear to have undergone much of an evolution.
The federation was on the verge of sacking Arnold earlier this year when results began to match performances, going so far as to leak against him. Is it confident it won't find itself back there?
Secondly, and most importantly, is the question of what Football Australia's vision for football in this country is, and if Arnold's approach is reflective of these principles and values. Are what the coach places importance on -- and what he doesn't -- what the federation wants to see reflected throughout the broader game? The Socceroos represent the shining beacon upon the hill for the men's pyramid. What they value will inherently trickle down.
This, in turn, will inevitably come to define the parameters and limitations the game places upon itself, as well as the type of player it values and develops. If this World Cup was as good as it could have got for Australia and the Socceroos as it stands right now, is Arnold and his vision going to take them to that next level? Or does someone else need to take his foundation of "Aussie DNA" and add a new layer of tactical and technical paint?
Johnny Warren's declaration that Australia should try to win the World Cup and not just qualify comes into play here. Is Arnold the man to take us there? Or does that next level and next evolution in approach require a fresh set of eyes? It's on the federation to find an answer.